JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 4:53 AM EDT570
FXUS63 KJKL 120853 CCA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
453 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The potential for rain will arrive from the southwest late today
and tonight. This is due to the weakening remnants of Hurricane
Francine moving north through the Mississippi Valley.
- A possibility of rain continues through to the middle of next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2024
Aloft, the remnants Francine will lift northward into the
Mississippi Valley, reaching northeast AR & West TN by dawn on
Friday. Ridging across the Upper Ohio Valley strengthens into a
center of high pressure over the Great Lakes by Friday as well.
One of Francine's main outer band appears to lift into eastern
Kentucky tonight. This first band may be our best chance of
realizing some type of measurable rainfall across the area
through the short term. However, downsloping will eat away at
much, if not most of the moisture downwind of the spine of the
Appalachians, especially over eastern and southeastern portions
of our forecast area. It is likely that locations east of a
Jenkins to Paintsville line will receive little if any rainfall
through Friday. To paint a better picture, ensemble probabilities
of total QPF being GTE to 0.01 inches across these areas is only
around 30% or less through Friday. The probability of measurable
rain increases as one moves further west. Areas west of Highway 15
and east of the I-75 corridor have a 60-80% chance of seeing 0.01
inches, and a 30-50% chance of getting up to 0.10 inches. Further
west, locations along and west of the I-75 corridor have a 30-60%
chance of seeing up to 0.5 inches of rainfall through Friday, and
an 80% chance or higher of measuring at least 0.10 inches. Thus on
average, rainfall totals will be meager at best, with a sharp
gradient in rainfall totals as one moves from west to east.
Sensible weather features a considerable increase in mid & high
level cloudiness across the region with clouds thickening and
lowering with time from south to north over eastern KY today.
Surface winds will increase a bit from the east, becoming a little
gusty in spots across our far southwest and Bluegrass zones, as
well as our higher elevations. Models continue to back off on the
overall rainfall potential. Highest POPs through Friday occur
over our far southwest (70-80%), tapering to a slight 15-20%
chance near the WV border. The best potential for thunder will
reside along and west of the I-75 corridor where mainly elevated
CAPE climbs to between 750 and 1000 J/kg at times late tonight
into Friday. Time heights show this elevated instability best,
but meager bulk shear, less than 15 kts, and very weak mid-level
lapse rates suggest the potential for widespread thunder is quite
low.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2024
Active weather on tap in the extended, as the remnants of Hurricane
Francine becomes extratropical and moves through the region. A
second system, an area of low pressure that is expected to form off
the southeastern CONUS, will be our second weather maker. The models
have Francine drifting northward up the Mississippi River valley and
eventually stalling out over western Tennessee. From there, it
appears that the system will transition into a weak inverted trough
that will either stay in place and slowly dissipate, or perhaps even
drift eastward a short distance over Tennessee. In the meantime, an
area of low pressure is forecast to form along a stalled frontal
boundary just off the southeastern US coast. This features is then
expected to actually drift eastward and move inland early next week.
This system may even make if far enough west to bring more showers
and storms to our area Tuesday and Wednesday. There remains some
uncertainty as to how exactly the remnants of Francine will evolve
over the next few days, but it does look like she will bring rain to
eastern Kentucky over the upcoming weekend, before giving way to the
east coast Tuesday and Wednesday. It does still appear that the
remains of Francine will remain far enough west at first to keep the
higher rainfall totals over central and western Kentucky. Our far
southwestern counties will still most likely see the highest
rainfall totals in our area based on current model trends.
Temperatures look to trend around normal during the extended period,
with most days seeing max daytime values in the upper 70s and lower
80s, and nighttime lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The only
weather hazards of note will be any cloud to ground lightning that
will be possible with any thunderstorms we experience through out
the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2024
VFR conditions and winds less than 10 kts will hold through the
period. High ceilings, developing from south to north during the
period, is expected to mitigate even the river valley fog late
tonight for all locations but perhaps briefly in the Big Sandy
region. CIGS will lower to around 050 AGL late in the period as
shower begin to impinge on areas across our southwest (KSME &
KLOZ).
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF/RAY
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 4:53 AM EDT---------------
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