LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 8:29 PM EDT ...Forecast Update...345
FXUS63 KLMK 100029
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
829 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
...Forecast Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Hazy skies today due to smoke aloft. Much warmer this afternoon
after a chilly start to the day.
* Smoky skies are expected to continue into Tuesday.
* Confidence is increasing for showery weather late this week into
the weekend as a tropical system moves from the Gulf of Mexico
into the Mississippi Valley.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
Looking for a clear and quiet night across the area with high
pressure in control. Temps won't be as cool as last night, however
morning lows will still be chilly in the upper 40s and low 50s for
most spots. Forecast is on track, no changes planned.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
RAP 500 MB analysis and water vapor imagery showed a trough over the
northeast portion of the CONUS with a ridge of high pressure
building across the southwest. Mid level smoke from western
wildfires is obscuring the traditional sky clear blue color with a
sensible gray color, but otherwise is not impacting ground level.
Temperatures across the region were in the upper 60s to lower 70s
during the early afternoon.
The trough of low pressure that brought cooler than average
temperatures will continue to move to the east as the high pressure
builds across the desert southwest. Before heat associated with the
ridge returns, low temperatures tonight will be mainly in the mid to
upper 50s (between 5 and 10 degrees below normal). A few spots
tonight may reach the upper 40s. Height rises are expected to spread
across the entire country and into Canada headed into Tuesday which
will bring a return to above normal high temperatures. Highs in the
mid to upper 80s with clear skies with the possibility of continued
mid level smoky gray color due to smoke.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
Warm and dry weather continues through Wednesday night as a blocking
upper ridge remains parked over the Great Lakes. Dry ground
conditions and unseasonably low dewpoints will support wide diurnal
ranges, with lows near or slightly below normal, but highs well
above normal and even touching 90 in many locations on Wednesday.
Showery weather develops on Thursday, expanding south to north late
in the day as a decaying tropical low lifts north into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. The rainy pattern will continue at least through
Saturday, if not into Sunday but the best chances for precip will be
Friday into Friday night. Confidence is moderate to high that we
will see 1-2 inch rainfall totals through Friday night, especially
along and west of Interstate 65. With the low center near the
Missouri Bootheel on Friday, we'll also have to watch the potential
for rotating storms, but there remains quite a bit of uncertainty
about the dynamics by that time.
Forecast confidence really decreases over the weekend, as the post-
tropical low spins down and its track becomes more uncertain.
Blocking ridge over the Great Lakes strengthens by that point, which
could either cause the low to stall out over the Mid-Mississippi
Valley or guide it farther west. Will hang on to precip chances into
Sunday, potentially dropping another inch or more of rain,
especially along and west of I-65. Abundant cloud cover and
scattered to numerous showers will limit diurnal temp ranges over
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
VFR weather expected with light and variable surface winds. Any
prevailing wind direction will most likely be out of a general east
component, but low confidence given the light, erratic nature. High
pressure is centered over the lower Ohio Valley, leading to mainly
clear skies and light and variable winds through the next 24 to 30
hours. Skies will continue to be hazy due to increasing
concentrations of smoke in the mid-levels (especially 7-14 kft AGL).
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...MCK
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 8:29 PM EDT ...Forecast Update...---------------
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