PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 7, 5:17 PM EDT585
FXUS61 KPBZ 072117
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
517 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Lake enhanced moisture will keep clouds and stray showers north
of the region today in the wake of a cold front. Another long
stretch of dry weather begins Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A cool air mass will linger across the region today.
- Cloud cover with isolated scattered showers are expected
mainly north of Pittsburgh, PA.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Lake enhanced showers created by cold advection in northwest
flow will slowly subside through this evening as diurnal
heating/destabilization wanes and subsidence increases. Loss of
deeper mixing will also result in lowering wind speeds/gusts,
though remnant surface gradient flow may keep speeds elevated
along the higher terrain into NW PA.
Residual moisture (and continued cool advection over warm lake
waters) trapped beneath the post- frontal inversion may create
areas of stratocu that is more stubborn in thinning/dissipating
overnight. Otherwise, clearing skies and a cooler air mass will
promote low temperatures around 10-15 degrees below the daily
average. The combination of elevated winds and lingering cloud
cover has precluded issuance of Frost Advisory for valley
locations of Tucker/Preston counties despite potential for lows
dropping below 40 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Clear and dry weather is expected through Tuesday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Height rises and a shift to more westerly mid-level flow will
ensure cessation of lake enhanced cloud cover Sunday along with
some temperature moderation. However, residual influence of the
cold air mass is expected to cap high temperatures around 5
degrees below the daily average.
A ridge axis over the Midwest is expected to shift west into the
Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday and return warm conditions.
Tuesday will likely have above average temperatures by 3 to 5
degrees. Probability of temperatures >=80F is 80% to 95% over
eastern Ohio and portions of West Virginia/Pennsylvania.
Temperatures could exceed into the upper-80s over eastern Ohio
if strong subsidence develops during peak heating (dew points
drop into the mid-40s/30s).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather and above average temperatures through next
weekend
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate a persistent ridge across NE CONUS will
maintain dry weather through the long term period. Operational
models differ on placement and handling of a southern stream
low towards the beginning of next weekend, though ensembles
generally agree on maintaining the ridge across the Upper Ohio
Valley region. Temperatures are expected to average above
seasonable levels through the period with the high 500mb
heights in place.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cigs across the region have mostly made it to VFR with surface
heating. With lake enhanced moisture (under NW flow) and
shallow instability north of PIT, light rain showers are
expected to linger around FKL/DUJ region and could occasionally
drop cigs back to MVFR.
Winds will back to the west between 03Z to 06Z early Sunday
morning and impacts from the lake will decrease, convection and
low-level clouds are expected to despite in coverage.
Valley fog and/or perhaps a narrow stratus deck could develop
near LBE/MGW early Monday morning. Hi-Res guidance near MGW
suggest light to variable winds and could create a period of low
visibility, MVFR to perhaps IFR between 09Z to 12Z.
After dawn, any lingering river valley fog will dissipate and
VFR conditions are expected for all terminals. Afternoon mixing
and a gradient wind north of PIT may create Sunday afternoon
gusts to range between 15kts to 20kts.
.Outlook...
VFR conditions will persist through much of the next week under
the influence of high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...Hefferan/22
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Hefferan
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 7, 5:17 PM EDT---------------
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