JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 1:51 AM EDT984
FXUS63 KJKL 080551
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
151 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and dry conditions are expected through the remainder of
this weekend.
- Record or near-record low temperatures are forecast for Sunday
and Monday mornings. This is followed by a gradual warm-up as
the week goes by.
- The next slight chance of rain is not until at least Thursday
night or Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 151 AM EDT SUN SEP 8 2024
Temperatures continue to tumble under clear skies as high pressure
continues to build across eastern Kentucky. Thermometers are
reporting mid 40s to mid 50s across the area at 145 AM. Low
temperatures in the upper 30s cooler northern hollows to mid 40s
on thermal belt ridges are still expected by sunrise. A stray 36
to 37 degree reading cannot be ruled out in the coldest of
hollows north of the Mountain Parkway. Fog is also developing in
the deeper mainstem river valleys as expected.
UPDATE Issued at 923 PM EDT SAT SEP 7 2024
Updated overnight temperatures to reflect current trends.
Afternoon min dewpoints supported lows in the normally colder
spots in the northeast portions of the CWA to have lows a couple
degrees colder than the previous forecast. Valley fog is expected
to develop overnight with valley lows in the upper 30s to low
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 7 2024
Cool, clear, dry autumn weather will prevail through the short
term period. A deep upper trough will remain over the eastern
CONUS, but the closed low at its heart, currently over
southeastern Ontario, will begin lifting out to the northeast.
Surface high pressure currently over the Midwest will shift to the
central Appalachians by dawn on Monday. The air mass coming in
with the high is unseasonably cool and could give us record lows
each night. Some of the coldest valley locations could drop to the
upper 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT SAT SEP 7 2024
Much of the forecast period will be characterized by surface high
pressure just off to the east and mid-level trough eventually
breaking down and ridging building in from the southeast. Much of the
work week will be dry, with PWATs running a few standard deviations
below normal for this time of year. The various ensembles systems
show a good signal (60-80 percent) for overnight lows below 50
degrees particularly Sunday night into Monday morning. Given the
good signal for mixing out dry air in the afternoons will allow
for some fall nights, with lows in the low to mid 40s for the
valleys and mid to upper 40s for ridges Monday night and less cool
as we go through the period.
Once we get toward mid-week high pressure stays in control, but
previously mentioned mid- and upper level ridging will allow highs
to creep back above normal (Normals for JKL 82 degrees and LOZ
83 degrees). These afternoon highs will peak Wednesday, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Then as we round out the week there
is more uncertainty on how the tropics unfold. NHC is tracking an
area of low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico near the
Yucatan Peninsula today. The ensembles and deterministic guidance
are showing this will track northward into the Gulf Coast next
week and track toward the Ohio Valley late next week into next
weekend. The NBM is starting to throw in some slight chances of
rain (around 15-20 percent) by Thursday night into Friday and this
is likely a result of uncertainty related to this low pressure.
Given this will keep it rolling for now until more certainty
develops with this system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT SUN SEP 8 2024
Aside from localized MVFR to IFR worse conditions in valley fog
through 14Z, VFR conditions are forecast through the period. At
this time, the fog is not expected to affect TAF sites. Light and
variable winds overnight will become northeast to north at around
5KT or less during the day on Sunday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GINNICK/JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 1:51 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
