PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 6, 6:05 AM CDT713
FXUS63 KPAH 061105
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
605 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will bring markedly cooler temperatures this
weekend and refreshingly lower humidity.
- Fire danger is heightened this weekend with lower relative
humidity values in the 20s percentile.
- A warming trend resumes with near to above normal temperatures
in the otherwise dry forecast for next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024
An upper trough is nudging a front toward the area backed by
air from north central Canada. There are a few showers along the
front but observed and model soundings show column moisture is
both limited and shallow. This will probably remain that way
through much of the day today. The timing of the front keeps it
out of the Pennyrile region and southwest Indiana before peak
heating which allows just enough instability to show a little
bit more convective activity flaring up as it begins to depart
the CWA to the east. Have a slight chance thunder/shower PoP
across most of the area picking up to a chance/30 percent PoP
over the Pennyrile and parts of SWIN. The front brings much
cooler and drier air into the region. Temperatures are expected
to drop into the mid 50s by daybreak Saturday morning.
The weekend looks quite cool by seasonal norms with highs in the
mid 70s and lows in the 40s. With the ridge overhead Sunday
night it may end up slightly cooler a slight chance thunder/shower PoP
across most of the area picking up to a chance/30 percent PoP
over the Pennyrile and parts of SWIN. The front brings much
cooler and drier air into the region. Temperatures are expected
to drop into the mid 50s by daybreak than Saturday night. Daily
record lows look a little too low to be in play but it won't be
my more than a few degrees.
Ridging builds in overhead as the surface ridge axis departs to
the east by Monday putting us in southerly return flow.
Temperatures back into the 80s for highs although overnight lows
may remain cool for a couple more days as the cold front
modifies the air to our south well enough it will take a few
days to start pulling even 50 degree dewpoints back into the
area. Quiet and seasonable conditions then appear likely
through the remainder of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024
A cold front is moving in from the northwest. Winds will shift
to the northwest and remain light initially before a secondary
surge of northwest winds move into the area initiating gustiness
at 15 to 21 kts in the late morning and afternoon. Chances for
showers and storms remain along the front, highest in the
Pennyrile region of Kentucky but are too low for TAF mention
with this package. A trend more northeasterly as wind speeds
start to decrease is expected overnight.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 6, 6:05 AM CDT---------------
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