ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 17, 8:06 PM EDT688
FXUS61 KILN 180006
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
806 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
After showers that remain possible through tonight and isolated
activity indicated briefly Saturday afternoon, a dry forecast is
in store through Tuesday night. With this dry period,
temperatures will increase relatively quickly and end up 10
degrees or slightly more from climatological normals on Tuesday
and overnight.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Primarily stratiform rain to the southeast of I-71 will
continue to move south-southeast this afternoon. Northwestern
CWA from Delaware to Kenton and then southwestward to Richmond
and Indianapolis will keep a threat of shower activity this
late day and evening, potentially lingering past midnight. This
is firing along a weak boundary and could contain thunder in
stronger storms. Overnight showers that linger will be due to a surface
inverted trough nosing into northwest Ohio from northern IN
Coupled with scattered pockets of strong upward motion noted at
H7. Southern CWA will maintain a rain/shower threat as well,
but should be lacking the necessary ingredients for putting
thunder in the forecast.
Upstream in IN and IL, a good bit of fog was noted this morning.
In the wake of today's weather, a significantly moist lower
atmosphere, and light winds, areas of fog were noted across the
CWA for a few hours before and a little after daybreak.
Overnight lows will drop to around 60 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Some few indications of widely scattered/isolated showers are
apparent for Saturday. If this is the case, earlier development
should be in southern forecast area, Afternoon heating will
prompt what showers that may occur later in the day, at any
location in the CWA, ending quickly with the setting sun.
Highs will warm fairly uniformly to around 80, and lows will be
again within a degree or so on either side of 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and warm conditions will start out the long term Sunday
into Monday with high temperatures in the 80s. A little better
instability develops on Tuesday and therefore there will be the
potential for some pop up afternoon thunderstorms. These will
diminish with the loss of daytime heating. A brief lull in the
precipitation is expected before a cold front approaches and
moves through Wednesday into Thursday. There is still some
uncertainty with timing and strength of this system, however
cannot rule out the potential for some severe weather Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Cooler air will move into the region after
the passage of the front on Thursday. There is quite a bit of
model variability on Friday with either a cool dry solution or
with moisture being drawn up into the area from the south. Due
to this limited any precipitation chances to the chance category
for Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Can't rule out a few showers around the Cincinnati terminals
early this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will start the TAF
period. Much of the guidance for late tonight is expressing a
fog risk. This seems pretty aggressive based on forecast sky
cover, so have decided to nudge visibilities a bit higher than
guidance. Certainly if we realize the full potential of the fog
forecast tonight, there may be more sites dropping to less than
a mile than currently maintained in the 00Z TAFs (and also a bit
later of a burn off time).
Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected on Saturday. A few
isolated showers may develop in the afternoon, but coverage
should be very low. Light winds will persist through the day.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 17, 8:06 PM EDT---------------
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