JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 11:23 PM EDT223
FXUS63 KJKL 060323 AAB
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1123 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After another warm day on Friday, a cold front passing on Friday
night will bring a noticeable cool-down for the weekend. This is
followed by a gradual warm-up next week.
- Showers or thunderstorms are possible late Friday into Friday
night in association with a cold front. Otherwise, there's no
rain in the forecast for the next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2024
Eastern valley locations continued to cool off faster than the
previous forecast and min T was lowered as well as hourly T over
the next few hours for some deeper eastern valley locations
generally located to the east of I-75 and south of I-64.
UPDATE Issued at 913 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2024
Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and
trends. Deeper valley locations have decoupled and generally be
cooling off faster than forecast. Min afternoon dewpoints were in
the upper 40s to low 50s in eastern portions of the CWA in
particular and some hourly T as well as min T may need to
adjusted down a few degrees for some of the deeper valley
locations. Areas of fog should again begin to develop in valleys
by midnight if not after.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 326 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2024
An upper level trough is dropping southeast over the north
central CONUS late today, with an associated surface cold front
extending from MI southwest through the Mid Mississippi Valley.
The trough should advance to the eastern CONUS by dawn Saturday,
with a closed low near the Great Lakes. The cold front will pass
through the JKL forecast area Friday evening. Only limited
moisture return will occur before the front arrives, which will
limit precip potential. The NAM does have considerably more low
level moisture return than the GFS (which looks unrealistically
dry) and is favorable for some convection as the front nears. Have
used a POP peaking in chance category area wide Friday evening.
Ridge/valley temp differences can be expected overnight, along
with valley fog. After another warm day on Friday, cooler
temperatures arrive behind the front on Friday night. Cold air
advection behind the front will limit the potential for
ridge/valley differences and valley fog on Friday night.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2024
Quiet weather is in store for eastern Kentucky for most of the
extended period, as a large trough of low pressure aloft exits the
area Saturday morning, and strong Canadian high pressure settles in
behind it. A few rain showers will be exiting eastern Kentucky
Saturday morning, as the upper trough departs to the east. After
that, strong ridging, both aloft and at the surface, will settle
over the region. This ridge is expected to persist across the
eastern half of the CONUS through the middle the upcoming week, and
will bring much cooler temperatures to our area over the weekend and
into the first of next week. In fact, it is looking more and more
likely that we will see highs in the lower 70s this weekend and lows
in the 40s Saturday night and Sunday night, as a much cooler air
mass moves in. Some valley locations may fall into the lower 40s
both nights. The air mass will modify through out the week, the
ridge strengthens and ample sunshine sets in. Daytime highs should
return to more summer like values in the low to mid 80s from Tuesday
onward.
With ridging overhead, and clear skies and light winds
also expected, ridge valley temperatures splits and late night and
early morning valley fog are also possible during the period. No
weather hazards of any kind are expected in the extended at this
time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2024
Aside from valley fog that develops as early as 03Z to 04Z in some
locations, eventually resulting in IFR or worse visibilities in
some locations, VFR conditions are forecast through the period.
The most likely TAF sites to be affected by fog are KSME and KLOZ.
Winds will be light variable on average. However, convection could
near western and especially northwest portions of the area during
the last 3 hours or so of the period ahead of an approaching
front. KSYM is the most probable of the TAF sites to be affected
and some gusty winds perhaps occurring. However, with uncertainty
in timing not even VCTS was included at the end of the period at
this point.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GINNICK/JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 11:23 PM EDT---------------
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