JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 4:27 PM EDT733
FXUS63 KJKL 052027
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
427 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After another warm day on Friday, a cold front passing on Friday
night will bring a noticeable cool-down for the weekend. This is
followed by a gradual warm-up next week.
- Showers or thunderstorms are possible late Friday into Friday
night in association with a cold front. Otherwise, there's no
rain in the forecast for the next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 326 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2024
An upper level trough is dropping southeast over the north
central CONUS late today, with an associated surface cold front
extending from MI southwest through the Mid Mississippi Valley.
The trough should advance to the eastern CONUS by dawn Saturday,
with a closed low near the Great Lakes. The cold front will pass
through the JKL forecast area Friday evening. Only limited
moisture return will occur before the front arrives, which will
limit precip potential. The NAM does have considerably more low
level moisture return than the GFS (which looks unrealistically
dry) and is favorable for some convection as the front nears. Have
used a POP peaking in chance category area wide Friday evening.
Ridge/valley temp differences can be expected overnight, along
with valley fog. After another warm day on Friday, cooler
temperatures arrive behind the front on Friday night. Cold air
advection behind the front will limit the potential for
ridge/valley differences and valley fog on Friday night.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2024
Quiet weather is in store for eastern Kentucky for most of the
extended period, as a large trough of low pressure aloft exits the
area Saturday morning, and strong Canadian high pressure settles in
behind it. A few rain showers will be exiting eastern Kentucky
Saturday morning, as the upper trough departs to the east. After
that, strong ridging, both aloft and at the surface, will settle
over the region. This ridge is expected to persist across the
eastern half of the CONUS through the middle the upcoming week, and
will bring much cooler temperatures to our area over the weekend and
into the first of next week. In fact, it is looking more and more
likely that we will see highs in the lower 70s this weekend and lows
in the 40s Saturday night and Sunday night, as a much cooler air
mass moves in. Some valley locations may fall into the lower 40s
both nights. The air mass will modify through out the week, the
ridge strengthens and ample sunshine sets in. Daytime highs should
return to more summer like values in the low to mid 80s from Tuesday
onward.
With ridging overhead, and clear skies and light winds
also expected, ridge valley temperatures splits and late night and
early morning valley fog are also possible during the period. No
weather hazards of any kind are expected in the extended at this
time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2024
Aside from IFR or worse conditions in valley fog during the late
night and early morning hours, VFR conditions are forecast. The
most likely TAF sites to be affected by fog are KSME and KLOZ.
Winds will be light.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 4:27 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
