JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 4:25 AM EDT200
FXUS63 KJKL 030825
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
425 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Pleasant and comfortable weather conditions deep remain over
eastern Kentucky for much of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows a large area of high pressure to the north
of Kentucky and that is providing for a cooler, drier, and mostly
clear night. Winds are staying stirred from the northeast on
account of the high's position over the Great Lakes. These
conditions have been favorable for the development of a small
ridge to valley temperature difference along with some fog in the
deeper river valleys of the southeast parts of the area.
Currently, temperatures generally vary from the upper 50s on the
hills to the upper 40s and lower 50s in the more sheltered low
spots - especially northeast. Meanwhile, the northeast winds of
around 5 mph continue to bring in lower dewpoints with values
ranging from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s in the far south.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
very good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict weak northwest mid level flow on the
back side of a departing 5h trough to the northeast. This flow is
carrying just a hint of energy along with it today. Much of this
energy then gets left behind tonight into Wednesday creating a
dirtiness to the ridge slowly building east from the Plains. As
such, by Wednesday evening, a shortwave forms over southern
Kentucky at the 5h level with a pooling of energy quite evident by
00Z Thursday. Due to the continued small model spread through the
short term portion of the forecast, have again favored the NBM as
the starting point for the grids with little adjustment needed
aside from incorporating some more terrain details in the
temperatures for early this morning and again tonight.
Sensible weather features the pleasant late summer temperatures
and comfortable humidity levels continuing through mid week. While
the overall forecast is for dry conditions, there is a small
potential for a light shower or a couple of sprinkles in the
southwestern parts of the JKL CWA this morning, on account of a
weak inverted trough helping to consolidate low level moisture
mainly to the southwest of Lake Cumberland. This will dry out by
the afternoon as its focus retrogrades more to the west for
tonight and Wednesday. There will be another cool night on tap
following sunset along with a decent ridge to valley split holding
into Wednesday morning and probably a bit more in the way of fog
in the river valleys. Wednesday will also be dry, comfortable and
just a tad warmer - but still seasonably cool.
The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of adding in
terrain distinctions for temperatures early this morning and
moreso tonight. PoPs were only touched up this morning in the
southwest parts of the area where there is some model support for
a light shower around, but probably just some sprinkles.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2024
The dominant surface feature to begin the extended will be a
large ridge of high pressure that will be centered over New
England and the mid-Atlantic region Wednesday through Thursday.
Ridging aloft will also be in place over this same general region,
acting to reinforce the surface ridge. A stalled frontal boundary
will be stretched across the Gulf of Mexico and into extreme
southern Texas. Further west, the southern extent of a large
Canadian trough will be moving east out of the Pacific Northwest,
across the Rocky Mountains, and into the northern Plains to start
things off. High pressure will keep the weather dry and cooler
than normal across our part of the country for the middle of the
week, but this will gradually chance Thursday night into Friday,
as the northern stream trough intensifies and makes a strong
eastward push. Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure is forecast to
form along the eastern end of the Gulf of Mexico boundary, and
will push the boundary eastward across the Gulf states as the
northern system phases in a bit. As these two systems merge a bit
and move east through the eastern half of the CONUS, scattered
showers and isolated storms will develop along the surface front
that will extend southward from the northern trough. The rain
should begin sometime early Thursday night, and last through the
day on Saturday, as the surface front moves through and moisture
wraps around the back of the northern trough as it moves by to the
north.
Temperatures in the extended will be quite pleasant in general,
with daily maxes in the lower 80s on tap Wednesday and Thursday
before the front arrives. We will then see a significant cooling
trend across the area, beginning on Friday, as extensive cloud
cover and rain move through. Highs on Friday are forecast to top
out in the upper 70s and lower 80s around the area. Once the
northern trough has moved off to our east over the weekend, a
major air mass change will take place, as high pressure settles
over the region. In fact, there is a good chance that we will see
fall like temperatures this weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday
might see highs in the low to mid 70s, with nighttime lows in the
40s. Some valley locations may even fall into the lower 40s. It
will be a big, big change from the temperatures we have
experienced over the past few weeks to be sure.
The only weather hazard to speak of will be the possibility of
cloud to ground lightning that could occur with what few
thunderstorms that end up forming.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Do expect some
patchy fog in the river valleys, but this will not impact any
terminals. Winds will remain light and predominantly out of the
northeast, trending more east-northeasterly by the afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 4:25 AM EDT---------------
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