ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 2, 3:32 PM EDT996
FXUS61 KILN 021932
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
332 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and cooler conditions will continue through midweek
before warmer air builds back in late week. Abundant sunshine
and seasonably mild temperatures will prevail through the first
half of the workweek before rain chances return by Friday. Much
below normal temperatures are expected to return to the region
next weekend into early in the following week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Northwest mid level flow with surface high pressure building
across the Great Lakes overnight. In the dry airmass a few flat
cumulus clouds will dissipate with the loss of heating early.
In the dry airmass temperatures will drop off fairly quickly
after sunset, with lows from the lower 40s north/northeast to
the lower 50s south. Due to the dry airmass have trended lows
a little NBM guidance.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A large and expansive area of high pressure will drift slowly
east through the Great Lakes thru Tuesday, providing a
continuation of the dry weather conditions. Sunny conditions
early with an increase on high level clouds - with the best
coverage across the south. High temperatures to range from 75 to
80.
The center of the surface high slide into New England with an
easterly low level flow across the area. High and some mid level
clouds will continue across the south. Low temperatures to range
from the upper 40s north to the upper 50s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid-level ridging will nudge into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday as
light southeasterly return flow develops behind the departing
surface high. Temperatures will respond by lifting into the middle
80s during the afternoon. This dry southeasterly flow will continue
through Thursday resulting in mostly sunny skies.
Another deepening mid-level trough will approach on Friday. A
leading cold front will veer the surface winds around to the
southwest for a short period, leading to a modest increase in
dewpoints. However, guidance is still offering little in the way of
QPF... even with the cold frontal passage Friday night.
The trough will be centered over the Great Lakes heading into next
weekend. The European ensemble suite shows H5 height anomalies on
the order of minus two sigma, leading to chilly nights and cool
days. Both highs and lows are trending down with the latest blended
solutions, and additional tweaks will likely be needed. Dry
conditions are expected at this time with surface high pressure
building in from the Upper Midwest and Middle Mississippi Valley.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A dry airmass over the area with a large ridge of high pressure
building across the Great Lakes overnight thru Tuesday.
Diurnally driven VF cumulus clouds will dissipate early this
evening with the loss of heating - giving way to clear skies.
VFR conditions to continue Tuesday with only a few fair weather
cumulus clouds expected.
Northeast winds at 10 to 15 kts will gust up to 20 kts this
afternoon before decreasing to less than 10 kts this evening,
then becoming more easterly Tuesday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 2, 3:32 PM EDT---------------
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