JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 2, 7:25 PM EDT863
FXUS63 KJKL 022325
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
725 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Pleasant and comfortable weather will continue well into the
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2024
The forecast is on track so there is no need to update anything
except the NDFD grid database with the most recent observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2024
Aloft, eastern Kentucky resides within a northwest flow regime.
There is some subtle, weak short wave energy moving through the
region Tuesday afternoon, effectively sharpening an inverted
trough in place across the Commonwealth at the surface. Some type
of mid level feature tracks from east to west across the Tennessee
Valley during the day Tuesday, along the southern periphery of a
strong surface high pressure system over the Upper Ohio Valley.
This will pull some moisture back into portions of the area by
Tuesday afternoon, especially over southern portions of the
forecast area with a pooling of moisture along the inverted trough
which will be in place across our southwest. Operational nam/gfs
suggest the potential of some frontogenesis developing between
H850 and H700, with strong subsidence occurring above H700. CAMs
have even picked up on this feature and suggest the potential of
some weak convection to our south over Tennessee Tuesday
afternoon, and possibly along and just north of the
Kentucky/Tennessee state line. At present we have dry weather
forecast, but can't help but to think this subtle feature may
impact our sensible weather. Thus could not rule out some
sprinkles across our most southern zones Tuesday afternoon. For
now will just mention to oncoming shifts.
Otherwise, it is a temperature forecast through the short term.
In general, cool, dry air will be in place across the area. With
H850 temps between 12-15 C, we should experience some seasonably
nice weather with temperatures averaging just a couple to a few
degrees below normal. Overnight lows should wind up in the mid 50s
for the entire area tonight and again tomorrow night for our
typically cooler valley locations in the east. Temperatures will
moderate to around 60 for lows across our southwest tomorrow night
due to more substantial cloud cover. Afternoon highs Tuesday will
be very similar to today, though surface winds will not be quite
as strong. With the preponderance of drier air in place across the
area and resulting low cross over temps, any valley fog will be
spotty and mainly near sources of water in our coldest valley
locations.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2024
The dominant surface feature to begin the extended will be a
large ridge of high pressure that will be centered over New
England and the mid-Atlantic region Wednesday through Thursday.
Ridging aloft will also be in place over this same general region,
acting to reinforce the surface ridge. A stalled frontal boundary
will be stretched across the Gulf of Mexico and into extreme
southern Texas. Further west, the southern extent of a large
Canadian trough will be moving east out of the Pacific Northwest,
across the Rocky Mountains, and into the northern Plains to start
things off. High pressure will keep the weather dry and cooler
than normal across our part of the country for the middle of the
week, but this will gradually chance Thursday night into Friday,
as the northern stream trough intensifies and makes a strong
eastward push. Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure is forecast to
form along the eastern end of the Gulf of Mexico boundary, and
will push the boundary eastward across the Gulf states as the
northern system phases in a bit. As these two systems merge a bit
and move east through the eastern half of the CONUS, scattered
showers and isolated storms will develop along the surface front
that will extend southward from the northern trough. The rain
should begin sometime early Thursday night, and last through the
day on Saturday, as the surface front moves through and moisture
wraps around the back of the northern trough as it moves by to the
north.
Temperatures in the extended will be quite pleasant in general,
with daily maxes in the lower 80s on tap Wednesday and Thursday
before the front arrives. We will then see a significant cooling
trend across the area, beginning on Friday, as extensive cloud
cover and rain move through. Highs on Friday are forecast to top
out in the upper 70s and lower 80s around the area. Once the
northern trough has moved off to our east over the weekend, a
major air mass change will take place, as high pressure settles
over the region. In fact, there is a good chance that we will see
fall like temperatures this weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday
might see highs in the low to mid 70s, with nighttime lows in the
40s. Some valley locations may even fall into the lower 40s. It
will be a big, big change from the temperatures we have
experienced over the past few weeks to be sure.
The only weather hazard to speak of will be the possibility of
cloud to ground lightning that could occur with what few
thunderstorms that end up forming.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Could not rule
out some patchy fog in the most sheltered river valley locations,
but this is not expected to impact any terminals. Winds will
remain light and predominantly out of the northeast, trending more
east-northeasterly by the afternoon hours Tuesday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 2, 7:25 PM EDT---------------
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