ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 2, 6:28 AM EDT757
FXUS61 KILN 021028
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
628 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and cooler conditions will settle into the area through
midweek before warmer air builds back in late week. Abundant
sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures will prevail through
the first half of the workweek before rain chances return by
Friday. Much below normal temperatures are expected to return to
the region next weekend into early in the following week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery continues to show a
SCT/BKN Cu field shifting S through the CWA as the secondary
front clears the local area. Through the remainder of the
night, mostly clear skies are expected for locales near/N of
I-71, although a few Cu will work back in from the NE from time-
to-time through daybreak. Low temps will dip into the lower 50s
in EC IN and WC OH to the lower 60s in far south-central OH and
NE KY.
The main story of the near term period will be the anomalously
dry airmass settling into the ern CONUS, including the OH Vly,
yielding dry and seasonably mild conditions along with abundant
sunshine through the first half of the workweek. Highs today
will reach into the mid to upper 70s amidst a light
northeasterly breeze of 12-15kts and mostly sunny skies this
afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A large/expansive sfc high pressure will drift E through the
Great Lakes region tonight into Tuesday, providing a
continuation of tranquil conditions locally. Temps will drop off
fairly quickly after sunset this evening, eventually bottoming
out in the upper 40s in WC and central OH to the mid 50s in N
KY by sunrise Tuesday... about 10 degrees below seasonal norms.
Temps rebound to around 80 degrees by Tuesday afternoon amidst
mostly clear skies. Some cirrus will filter in during the
afternoon near/S of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Subtle H5 ridging will build across the Midwest during the middle of
the week. This will lead to a warmup in temperatures starting with
Tuesday night, where lows will primarily be in the 50s to near 60.
On Wednesday, highs will be back into the middle 80s for most, which
will be a couple degrees above normal values. However, a very dry
air mass remains intact.
Dry weather expected to persist until Friday, although some weak
isentropic lift could result in isolated shower development late
Thursday and Thursday night. A better signal exists for
Friday/Friday night for precip as an H5 trough and associated
surface cold front swing through the region. Better forcing exists
towards the Great Lakes, so have higher PoPs for our central OH
counties. Regardless, QPF footprint is still not very impressive
with this system, so not expecting much relief in the drought
conditions.
Anomalously cool temperatures will ensue next weekend given the
amplified H5 trough over us. Some locations may observe highs in the
60s on Saturday, trending a bit warmer on Sunday in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A few patches of FEW/SCT VFR Cu continues to slowly drift SSW
through the region, and will wane in coverage/scatter out past
18z. Conditions will remain VFR through the period as
anomalously dry air settles into the Ohio Valley.
NNE winds around 10kts early will go more out of the NE at
12-15kts during the daytime, with gusts to 20kts
possible. Gustiness will subside near/after sunset, with winds
generally going 5-7kts or less overnight. Conditions should
trend SKC by 00z before a few cirrus begin to stream in from the
W toward daybreak Tuesday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 2, 6:28 AM EDT---------------
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