PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 9:35 AM EDT581
FXUS61 KPBZ 011335
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
935 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures, noticeably less humid and dry
conditions will prevail through much of the upcoming week.
Precipitation chances return on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Isolated light shower activity possible this morning over the
ridges as a cold front exits the region.
-Cooler and drier air will move in later today.
----------------------------------------------------------------
A cold front currently crossing the region will exit east of the
ridges during the afternoon as an upper level low digs in over
eastern Canada north of the eastern Great Lakes. Even with the
falling heights, the flow aloft will remain zonal throughout the
day. Isolated showers should be limited to mainly the ridges
later this morning as this morning's KPIT sounding already
indicated a subsidence inversion near 700mb. Surface dewpoints
will eventually drop into the 50s as drier air works in behind
the front, making for more comfortable conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Noticeably cooler and drier Monday and Tuesday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A cool northwest flow is expected Monday and Tuesday. This
should mean dry and much more comfortable conditions. This flow
would likely lead to the development of CU, mainly on Monday,
as colder air aloft overspreads the region. Highs both days will
be below seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- High likelihood for another prolonged dry and seasonable
weather pattern.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Long range ensemble analysis favors a prolonged period of dry
and seasonable weather as the Upper Ohio River Valley remains
under waning NW flow and ridging persists over the Rockies.
Variation in potential outcomes increases toward the end of the
week depending on potential shortwave trough progression from
the west coast over the ridge. If it is able to flatten the
ridge Tuesday/Wednesday, the likelihood is for it to advance
towards the east coast and offer low probability rain chances
and trend area temperature downward after it passes. If it
remains stuck over the Pacific NW, the ridge may shunt east and
maintain dry weather while causing temperature to rise well
above the daily averages. Current forecast remains in between
due to ensemble means, but look for these values to trend one
way or another as those larger pattern changes are better
resolved.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Relatively light SW wind will shift to the WNW this morning,
and finally veer to the NNW by evening after the passage of a
reinforcing front. as a cold front continues to transition
across the region. Skies should gradually clear overnight
Sunday night with dry advection and building high pressure.
.Outlook...
Late night/early morning river valley steam fog is possible
each morning with cool air temps over warm river water.
Otherwise, high pressure will maintain VFR through Thursday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...22/88
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...WM/88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 9:35 AM EDT---------------
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