IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 1:01 AM EDT881
FXUS63 KIND 010501
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
101 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A final day of above normal temperatures Sunday in low to mid-80s
- Cooler weather with lower humidity early next week
- Rain chances return late Wednesday into Friday
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
Northwesterly winds prevail across the CWA as weak cold air
advection continues behind a cold front. The front itself is not far
to our south, and a few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across
Daviess and Martin Counties. These are expected to diminish and end
in the next hour or so. Further north, light northwesterly winds
under 5kt and clear skies have allowed for efficient radiative
cooling. This, combined with the weak cold air advection, has
allowed temps to drop into the 60s in a few rural areas as of
930pm. Most locations are in the mid to low 70s.
Going forward, continued cooling is anticipated with lows in the 60s
for most locations. A few rural places may see temps dip into the
upper 50s by tomorrow morning. Additionally, enough low-level
moisture remains for some patchy fog overnight. The best chance of
this is generally south of I-70.
No major changes to the forecast needed with this update. Only some
minor adjustments to PoPs to reflect radar trends over the past hour.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
Rest of Today and Tonight...
Transition from recent humidity and at times record heat to
seasonable early fall conditions to occur through short term period.
Considerable low/mid cloudiness over much of central Indiana today
following a preliminary/quasi-stationary frontal boundary now just
to our southeast...has allowed morning convection to quietly depart
with no subsequent showers developing. Subtle daytime heating under
a near-moist-adiabatic profile should allow for at least isolated
towers south/east of Bloomington late today and early this evening
amid the slowly-departing frontal zone. Can not rule out stray
lightning with a few downpours, but do not expect any marginally
strong/severe wind outside of the Ohio Valley.
Main story tonight will be clouds slowly scattering out from
northwest to southeast behind the departing frontal zone. Dewpoints
will quietly saunter downward through the 60s amid this mediocre
attempt at more autumnal conditions from the first air mass. Dry
conditions should be the rule past a few early evening showers over
the far southeastern zones. Expect lows to follow dewpoint
progression...ranging from upper 50s to around 60 north of
Interstate 70 and the Indianapolis Metro...to mid-60s along the US-
50 corridor.
Sunday...
THe more predominant boundary will cross the local region from
northwest to southeast during the morning and midday hours. Lack of
forcing aloft will facilitate a dry frontal passage...yet it will be
felt by a noticeable increase in northwest flow to 15-20 mph
gusts... from Lafayette by early afternoon to the southern tier by
late day.
Overall moderate humidity through morning hours will therefore trend
down during the afternoon...with a post-frontal dewpoint gradient by
early evening from the upper 50s northwest of Indianapolis, to mid-
60s near and southeast of Bloomington. Temperatures will return to
above normal levels for one final day amid the lower moisture and
under plentiful sun...with low to mid-80s the rule across the realm.
The short term normal max/min at Indianapolis is 83/63.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
The long term period will start out with dry conditions and below
normal temperatures as an upper trough exits the area. High pressure
at the surface will slowly push through the area from beginning to
mid-week while temperatures will start off with highs in the 70s and
lows in the 50s. Temps will trend warmer and near normal through mid-
week as surface flow becomes more southerly as the high exits.
Another upper wave is expected for the end of the week but exact
timing and details are unknown at this time. Rain may move in from
the south starting late Wednesday but there is a slightly better
chance of rain along a cold front at the end of the week associated
with the upper wave. Behind the front expect another dip in
temperatures to the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
Impacts:
-Patchy fog overnight, mainly near KHUF and KBMG
-Low probability showers Sunday afternoon
-Some wind gusts near 20kt during Sunday afternoon
Discussion:
Patchy fog will continue to develop across the area tonight, with
most coverage near the southern sites. Will put in MVFR fog at KHUF
and mention patchy fog at KBMG. Cannot rule out fog at KLAF though.
Fog will mix out early. Some cumulus will accompany a cold front as
it moves south across the sites this afternoon. A brief shower is
possible with the front, but odds are much to low to include in the
TAF. With the front, winds may gust to around 20kt this afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...AGM
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 1:01 AM EDT---------------
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