LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 10:54 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...936
FXUS64 KLIX 291554
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1054 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
Made a quick update to the grids earlier to account for current
trends. Convection should and is going faster today as the area
was quickly destabilizing and a better southeast to south-
southeast push in the ll. This is allowing marine storms to move
inland and continue instead of dissipating and then refiring over
more interior areas later. PWs right around 2.2" this morning.
Convection should continue to grow and move into the northwestern
half of the CWA rather quickly, in the next hour or two. Best ll
convergence is in place, increasing instability, and better upper
lvl diffluence. Storms are capable of producing wind gusts of 30
to 35mph and have been efficient rain producers with most dropping
between 0.5 and 1" in under 30 mins however there have been some
stronger storms that weren't moving as fast which radar estimated
close to 3" in 1 hour. Luckily that was over the marsh of extreme
southeast Livingston Parish. Coastal areas that have already seen
rain this morning may be done for quite a while but am expecting
additional storms to move in late this afternoon. /CAB/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
We now have PW values well over 2" which came in faster than
expected, but now that they are here, they will stick around for a
while. The upper low over TX will begin to nudge northward while the
upper maritime anticyclone over the central gulf ridges into the
vacant real estate left behind the upper low. The upper low will
actually open into a digging upper trough currently moving southeast
over Idaho and Montana. This upper trough will eventually delineate
where precip will occur and where it won't. Basically, behind it
will be dry and where it interacts with the upper maritime high is
where the most rainfall will occur over the next few days. Now that
PW values have risen above 2", the convective temps also have to
fall and the convective temps will be within a range from 87-90F
each day. This is how the nocturnal storms develop and then transfer
to landmass storms during the day. Basically, this defines a diurnal
trend in storms developing. The shelf water temps are running from
87-89F and the marine areas become most unstable during the late
night and morning hours which peaks around sunrise. This is why we
will see nocturnal convection each morning while land temps fall
well below these numbers overnight. Then the sun does its magic and
heats the land mass up to and above the convective temps while the
warmer air over the relatively cooler shelf waters becomes more
stable than the land mass. This is why we see and will see this
transfer of storms developing over marine areas during the morning
and over land during the day while decaying for the most part over
the gulf. Since this is deep tropical moisture, these storms will
have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall over a short
period. The good thing for now is these storms have good motion so
they don't stay over one place very long. But there is the
possibility that one or two areas could get enough rainfall fast
enough to cause some localized flooding issues. As always, there is
also that isolated chance of one or two storms becoming strong to
severe each day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
This diurnal dance in storm development will occur each day through
the weekend into most if not all of next week. Some days with
slightly less chances of storms while others will be more robust.
The upper level trough moving southeast will stall over the central
part of the country keeping this interaction between it and the
upper maritime ridge active. There is some indication that a
reinforcing short wave deepening this upper trough farther into the
south could occur by next week's end. But we will need to get closer
to this time frame to iron out those details.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
There are a few terminals currently being impacted by convection
and this has led to MVFR conditions with the main culprit being
low cigs around 1700-2500'. Obviously as any storm move directly
over the airport vsbys have dropped as well and this has led to
temporary IFR vsbys. These quickly improve as the heavier rain
moves out. Outside of convection VFR conditions are in place and
convection over land areas should quickly come to an end after
sunset. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 138 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
Not much difference in winds over the north central gulf into next
week. Wind direction should remain stable from the SE and speeds
should also hold at and around 10kt. There will be plenty of sh/ts
that develop over the coming several days that will cause very
localized strong winds from different directions at times. Storms
will mainly develop in the early morning and some of these could
continue well into the daylight hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 72 85 71 / 80 40 90 30
BTR 92 76 88 75 / 80 50 90 40
ASD 91 75 88 74 / 80 60 90 40
MSY 90 76 86 76 / 80 60 90 40
GPT 90 76 88 75 / 80 60 90 40
PQL 94 76 91 75 / 80 50 80 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...TE
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 10:54 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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