PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 30, 12:05 PM CDT045
FXUS63 KPAH 301705
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- One last hot day today with heat index readings topping out in the
upper 90s to low 100s.
- Widely scattered showers and storms possible this afternoon,
but our best chance for rain will be on Saturday. Rain
chances may linger in our south on Sunday.
- Much cooler temperatures this weekend through next week. Lower
humidity pushes into the area Sunday into Labor Day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024
The 500mb ridge that has been parked over our region this week is in
the process of breaking down. An influx of moisture from Arkansas is
in the process of working up our way, which will lead to higher
dewpoints today. However, latest guidance seems to hint at deeper
mixing than they were showing yesterday, so we may still mix down
into at least the upper 60s this afternoon. A healthy amount of
clouds this afternoon should keep temperatures cooler, but still
likely reaching the mid 90s in most places. Hottest areas may end up
being the Pennyrile of west KY into southwest IN, where a few
localized upper 90 readings are possible. Heat index values will
peak in the upper 90s to low 100s. Will continue to handle with an
SPS.
Most of the CAMs really struggle to generate much in the way of
convection this afternoon. Certainly could see a little something
pop up, but coverage may be rather scarce. The main forcing with the
incoming front remains to our northwest, while the influx of
moisture to our southwest isn't quite as impressive as it once
looked like. Isolated to widely scattered activity will remain
possible this evening and overnight as the front approaches.
The best rain chance of the period looks to be Saturday when the
front makes passage. While a strong storm can't be ruled out, the
instability doesn't look overly impressive (MLCAPE of only 1500
j/kg) and deep layer shear struggling to reach 20 kts. The Day 2
marginal risk from SPC looks very low end and probably not necessary
this far west.
The 00z suite of guidance has trended lower on QPF amounts, which is
unfortunate given the recent prolonged dry period. A large part of
the area got upgraded to D0 on the latest Drought Monitor, and it
seems unlikely this system will provide much relief to those
conditions. In fact, its quite possible some areas struggle to
receive a tenth of an inch. Yes, there will be some localized areas
that receive over 0.50" and probably even over an inch. But the
spatial coverage of those higher amounts may end up being fairly low.
Moisture may linger across west Kentucky into parts of southeast
Missouri on Sunday before the drier airmass behind the front works
south through the entire area. Thus there may be some lingering rain
and at the very least clouds across these areas. Dewpoints will be
lowering through the 60s further north across the region, but may
not make it to our south until Sunday evening.
Surface high pressure situated across the Great Lakes will provide a
dry northeasterly fetch of cooler air Labor Day into Tuesday. Low
humidity will also be present making it feel quite nice! Thereafter,
it's possible that a system to our south may spread moisture up into
parts of the area Wednesday into Thursday next week. Deterministic
solutions have started to trend wetter, following the path the
ensembles have been hinting at. The GEFS solution in particular is
rather bullish with it.
Temperatures trend down into the low to mid 80s on Saturday, then
nudge up slightly on Sunday due to more sunshine (at least north
half of the area). Next week temperatures look to be fairly close to
normal in the low to mid 80s most days with overnight lows primarily
in the lower 60s. Could be a couple nights drop into the upper 50s
for some locations though.
The deterministic GFS and ECMWF hint at a rather strong trough next
weekend (Sept 7-8). Noticed the ensembles have been suggesting
troughing across the Ohio Valley as well. This may lead to below
normal temperatures with highs/lows possibly in the 70s/50s
respectively.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024
Mid level clouds will increase from the south through this
evening as a cold front slowly approaches the region from the
west. Widely scattered storms gradually becomes more possible
through tonight, but the probability still remains fairly low at
any one terminal to include mention beyond VCSH at this time.
SW winds between 5-10 kts are progged this afternoon.
The other concern late tonight is the potential for BCFG,
especially at KCGI and possibly KMVN/KPAH as winds turn calm
with increasing saturation in the low-levels. The risk for SHRA
does begin to ramp up by 13z Saturday as the front moves closer.
Towards the end of the TAF period, scattered TSRA will become
more likely as rain turns more numerous for Saturday afternoon.
Winds will start off light & variable.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 30, 12:05 PM CDT---------------
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