ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 3:05 AM EDT839
FXUS61 KILN 310705
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
305 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and storms are expected today ahead of a slow
moving cold front. Drier conditions will filter in tonight into
Sunday, with dry and seasonably mild conditions on tap through
the first half of the upcoming workweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A large but disorganized complex of TSRA continues to drift to
the NE and away from the local area, with a trailing corridor of
SHRA back to the W across portions of IL/IN. This axis of SHRA
should slowly approach parts of EC IN and WC OH during the
predawn hours, but aside from a few spotty SHRA elsewhere,
expect that most areas (especially near/E of I-71) may remain
dry through daybreak.
LL/deep-layer moisture will continue to advect into the ILN FA
through the morning hours, with an embedded midlevel S/W
providing the necessary forcing to promote widespread SHRA/TSRA
development and expansion locally by late morning into early
afternoon. The bulk of this activity should, by then, focus near
and S of the I-71 corridor, particularly near/S of the OH Rvr by
mid afternoon. This activity will be well ahead of the sfc front
itself, which will be hanging back to the N quite a bit. The
storms will develop within a regime of tremendous deep-layer
moisture, but rather meager midlevel and LL lapse rates and
thermodynamic conditions. The forcing and saturated nature of
the profile, along with some moderate instby and low-end deep-
layer shear, will be enough to promote the development of
numerous SHRA/TSRA by mid afternoon. The question of severity,
however, remains uncertain given the relatively poor
thermodynamic environment, especially in comparison to what we
have had the past several days. If there is going to be a small
cluster of strong to severe storms that develops, it will
likely focus near and SE of a line from Ohio Co IN to Hocking Co
OH, particularly across N/NE KY. But this remains a big "if".
The end result of this setup may end up being similar overall to
what transpired over the past several days... very isolated
instances of strong to damaging winds, but most areas do not see
any severe weather. Will maintain mention in the HWO given the
non-zero potential for a few strong/severe storms in the
aforementioned areas.
Temps this afternoon should top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s
from NW to SE, respectively. A few upper 80s will be possible in
NE KY and the lower Scioto Valley where the expansive pcpn will
be the latest to arrive (past mid afternoon).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The bulk of the storm activity will wane in coverage and
intensity by/past sunset as it gradually shifts to the S.
However, a few ISO/SCT SHRA should linger back to the N close to
I-71 toward midnight just ahead of the front itself before dry
conditions overspread from N to S toward daybreak Sunday with
the southward advancement of the front. Temps tonight will vary
considerably from WC OH through the lower Scioto Valley as the
front bisects the area. Cooler/drier air will begin to move in
from the NW, allowing for lows to dip into the upper 50s in WC
OH to the upper 60s in NE KY and south-central OH where clouds
and an abundance of LL moisture will persist through much of the
night. Some patchy fog may be possible in a few spots, but
there should be quite a bit of stratus/cloud cover as well, so
confidence in this scenario is rather low.
Skies will clear from N to S early in the day Sunday with any
spotty lingering SHRA activity shifting to the S out of the ILN
FA during the morning hours. However, a secondary front will
move in from the N by mid/late afternoon, with a few sprinkles
or light SHRA possible along the front late in the day
(especially near/N of the OH Rvr). So skies should clear from N
to S through the first half of the day before a narrow corridor
of clouds and ISO SHRA move back in from N to S past 21z through
the evening hours. Highs will generally top out in the mid to
upper 80s on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A relatively quiet week is in store weather-wise. Cooler and
drier air mass begins to usher in with a northwesterly flow
regime. Overnight lows will dip back into the 50s Sunday night
for most. On Monday, temperatures will begin to trend back below
seasonal normals, with highs primarily remaining locked in the
70s. Monday night lows could then dip into the 40s, especially
near/north of I- 70, along with rural areas.
Drought conditions will continue to worsen across the Ohio Valley as
a dry forecast is in store for the majority of the work week. By the
middle of the week, subtle H5 ridging will build across the Midwest
region which will lead to an increase in temperatures, perhaps a
couple degrees above normal values.
The main feature to monitor will be an H5 trough that sinks down
from Canada late in the week, which could help initiate
showers/storms again by Friday. However, not going with higher PoPs
than the NBM this far out given uncertainty in timing.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weakening cluster of SHRA/TSRA continues to pivot to the NE
through parts of EC IN/WC OH, but most of this activity should
stay just to the N of even KDAY through daybreak. Cannot
completely rule out a stray SHRA at any of the local sites, but
decided to maintain a dry fcst through 12z given expectation for
limited spatial/temporal extents. After 12z, there should be a
gradual increase in SHRA/TSRA moving in from the W, with the
greatest coverage expected locally between about 16z-22z,
particularly at KCVG/KLUK/KILN. By early evening, the greatest
coverage of SHRA/TSRA should shift to the S of the local sites,
with perhaps a few stray SHRA lingering behind through about
03z or so. Conditions trend dry area-wide toward the end of the
period.
VFR conditions will prevail outside of SHRA/TSRA activity
through the daytime period before MVFR CIGs/VSBYs begin to
develop toward 06z Sunday as the weak frontal boundary gradually
drifts to the S through the region. Light/VRB winds are expected
to go more westerly for the daytime at 5-10kts. Winds may go
light/VRB once again past 00z before northerly flow becomes more
established toward 12z Sunday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs and VSBYs are possible early Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 3:05 AM EDT---------------
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