IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 16, 6:58 PM EDT312
FXUS63 KIND 162258
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
658 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog in the NW possible again tonight.
- Rain and storm chances return at times late this evening through
Saturday.
- Above normal temperatures this weekend through the middle of next
week.
- Increasing threat for strong to severe storms by Tuesday and
Wednesday next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
A broad trough is bringing rain to the region that will move into
the forecast area shortly. Radar at the moment shows areas of light
rain over Illinois with isolated stronger showers and the
potential to produce a few lightning strikes as it moves in. This
system is becoming more dispersed as it moves in.
Clouds and scattered showers will likely stick around for much of the
night tonight with model soundings showing persistent saturation at
the top of the boundary layer, but will have to keep an eye out for
any locations that do begin to clear as the recent rains will help
to supersaturate the low levels and may allow for some fog
formation, especially across northwest Indiana where rain to be less
in coverage. Further to the southeast, clouds and occasional rain
should help to limit the fog formation with less efficient
radiational cooling even as winds drop to near calm.
Rain chances continue though the day tomorrow for most of the area
and best chances across the southern half of the area. While
overnight the rain seems to shift slightly southward, it does look
as if it will retreat back into the north some during the day Friday
due to a relatively stationary boundary sits over the Ohio Valley.
Isolated lightning will continue to be a threat tomorrow.
Temperatures tonight will drop only to near 60 with warmer
temperatures expected tomorrow thanks to WAA. Highs tomorrow will
reach the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Friday night through Saturday...
Look for rain chances to remain in the forecast to start the
extended as a weak surface wave traverses the region. Sufficient
moisture and forcing should support scattered showers and possibly a
few storms Friday night. Models have become better aligned for
Saturday with the aforementioned system shifting east during the day
with upper ridging/weak surface high pressure building in late.
Sufficient moisture and overall forcing will likely still be in
place Saturday for precipitation, mainly during the afternoon hours
when better destabilization is expected from daytime heating.
Weak overall flow during this period should result in slow moving
showers/storms. This combined with saturated grounds from recent
rainfall raises some concern for flooding where highly localized
areas of heavier rain could occur. Confidence in this threat is low
though due to relatively weak overall forcing and guidance trending
towards weaker moisture return.
Saturday night through Monday...
Upper ridging and surface high pressure should provide mostly quiet
weather conditions. However, isolated convection cannot be ruled out
over far S/SE portions of central IN Sunday afternoon where
sufficient PBL moisture could still be in place during the
afternoon. Latest guidance has lowered confidence in this potential
since most models show deeper moisture pushing further southeast of
the area. Expect increasing heights aloft and low cloud cover to
help warm temperatures well into the 80s both Sunday and Monday.
Monday night onward...
Guidance is in general agreement that the upper level pattern will
switch to more full-latitude troughing across the western CONUS
compared to split flow this week. This should result in a more
active pattern with multiple embedded shortwaves potentially
tracking over the Midwest next week. Look for rain chances to begin
increasing Monday evening and remaining elevated through at least
midweek.
At least a low end severe weather threat looks possible Tuesday into
Wednesday as increasing instability and deep-layer shear ahead of an
approaching surface low/parent trough could support organized s likely to return this evening into tonight with highest
coverage after 06Z so will keep just a VCSH mention for now before
that point. The higher coverage of rain will then end by the morning
hours tomorrow with only scattered showers through the day. Winds
will generally remain less than 10kts with a general southwesterly
direction through the TAF period.convection. CIPS Analogs and
CSU machine learning are showing increasing severe weather
probabilities during this period. It is still too early for exact
details, but this threat will be closely monitored over the coming
days. Temperatures look to remain above normal, but cooler air is
expected to filter in midweek behind a cold front.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 657 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Impacts:
- VFR becoming MVFR or worse overnight
- MVFR returning VFR after 18Z Fri.
- Scattered light rain showers much of the period.
Discussion:
Scattered light rain showers over IL are expected to push back
across Central Indiana this evening and overnight. Coverage is not
widespread, thus precipitation will be more of the hit and miss
variety and confidence for precise timing at any given location is
low. Thus VCSH was used.
Overnight, MVFR conditions are expected to return as forecast
soundings shows saturation within the lower levels. MVFR fog will
also be possible due to abundant residual lower level moisture,
However, fog should not be extensive as last night as cover cover
should prevent max cooling.
A frontal boundary near the Ohio river along with a passing upper
level disturbance will keep rain chances in play for much of Central
Indiana on Friday. Again, VCSH has been used due to low confidence
of precise timing and best forcing features being found south of the
TAF sites.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Puma
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 16, 6:58 PM EDT---------------
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