LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 3:25 AM EDT674
FXUS63 KLMK 290725
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
325 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Likely the hottest days of the summer so far now through
Friday with near record heat each day.
* Scattered showers are possible north of I-64 this evening. Storm
chances return Friday and Saturday.
* Cold front will move through the region late this weekend,
bringing relief from hot temperatures and humidity.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024
Strong ridging aloft will continue to persist through the day today,
bringing continued near record temperatures and hot conditions. The
previous forecast mentioned uncertainty with cloud coverage and
increased moisture in the time heights, and that holds true this
morning. Few to scattered mid level clouds are beginning to enter
southern Indiana this morning and will likely continue to persist
over the region today. A weak vort lobe and weakening stationary
boundary will also promote cloud development in the early afternoon.
Due to this, temperatures should remain in the mid-upper 90s today.
With dew points in the mid 60s, heat indices will remain in the
upper 90s and low 100s again today. For this reason, an SPS for heat
has been issued for today.
In the later afternoon, isolated showers are possible along the Ohio
River and over southern Indiana associated with the weakening front
and vort lobe.
In the overnight hours, persistent ridging will begin to push
eastward as troughing digs south into the Midwest. Temperatures
early Friday morning will be in the upper 60s across the Bluegrass
and the low-mid 70s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024
Central KY and southern IN will experience one more day of unusual
heat on Friday, when temperatures will again soar into the mid 90s
for most. Strong ridging aloft will remain over the Southeast,
though heights will begin a slow fall Friday as an upper level
shortwave trough ejects eastward over the Midwest and western Great
Lakes. We'll remain anomalously warm at 850 mb, and a dry start is
also likely with mostly sunny skies in the morning. Weak low-level
moisture advection into the region occurs as a cold front sags
southeast through the Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes. Most of the
convective activity will remain focused to our west and northwest
Friday afternoon, though isolated to widely scattered storms will be
possible in a moderately unstable, weakly sheared environment.
Locally strong wind gusts would be the main concern given some
lingering dry air in the column and steep low-level lapse rates,
yielding elevated DCAPE near or exceeding 1000 J/kg.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will peak late Friday night through
late Saturday as the sfc cold front and axis of deep moisture sink
slowly through the forecast area and the upper level trough moves
in. The severe weather potential looks limited due to very weak deep-
layer shear. PW will peak near 2 inches on Saturday, and deeper
moisture may fuel instances of locally heavy rainfall. Expect some
ponding on roads, but the flash flood threat is low due to dry
antecedent conditions.
Saturday will be humid, but high temperatures will only reach the
mid/upper 80s due to increased cloud cover and precipitation. The
sfc boundary hangs up over the region for the second half of the
weekend as it roughly parallels westerly flow aloft. This will keep
lingering rain chances in the forecast, especially over the southern
half of the forecast area, for Saturday night and Sunday.
A much stronger cold front sweeps through by Sunday night, bringing
drier air to the region. Canadian high pressure settles into the
region from the NW early next week. High temps in the mid/upper 80s
look likely for Sunday, with low/mid 80s on Monday. We'll have some
cooler morning lows by Mon/Tue with values ranging from the mid 50s
to mid 60s. Mainly dry weather looks likely through Tue, but
moisture creeping back northward will bring rain chances to portions
of central KY for the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024
VFR conditions will prevail for this forecast period, with light and
somewhat variable winds this morning. Mid-level clouds will begin to
move into the region mid-morning and winds will be generally from
the SW and variable through the day.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024
================== Near-Record Heat This Week ==================
Thursday 8/29/2024
Max T Fcst/Record (Year)
Louisville: 98/99 (1953)
Bowling Green: 99/101 (1925)
Lexington: 96/98 (1953)
Friday 8/30/2024
Max T Fcst/Record (Year)
Louisville: 98/98 (1953)
Bowling Green: 97/99 (1993)
Lexington: 97/97 (1953)
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...SRM
CLIMATE...EBW/SRM
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 3:25 AM EDT---------------
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