LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 1:45 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...207
FXUS63 KLMK 261745
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
145 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Hot temperatures and mostly dry weather expected through much of
the week. Daytime highs in the mid and upper 90s will be common,
with the heat index just over 100 on Wednesday and possibly
Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Sunny skies are present across all of southern Indiana and central
Kentucky this morning, with temperatures rising quickly over the
past few hours. Ample sunshine should continue through the day today
with latest SDF ACARS sounding showing a fairly dry column. A few
diurnal cu may try to form later this morning and into the early
afternoon, but coverage should not be enough to slow the upward
climb in temperatures. With high pressure centered over the southern
Appalachians, light S/SW winds should pick up over the next few
hours, though speeds will generally be 5 mph or less through much of
the day.
The forecast is on track at this time. Expect highs in the low-to-
mid 90s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Broad surface high pressure is situated over the eastern CONUS and
strong ridging aloft is slowly moving east. These features are
continuing to impact the region through dry conditions, light
southerly winds, mostly sunny skies (few diurnal cumulus clouds),
lower dew points, and above normal temperatures.
Today will be very similar to Sunday, just a bit warmer.
1000-850mb thicknesses will be around 1428m over the Lake
Cumberland region and 1430-1435m over the rest of the region in
the afternoon, which would correspond to about 89-94F using the
Massie-Rose equation. Forecast soundings show a mild dry air mix
down set up, where lower dew points will mix down to the surface
in the afternoon. Lower dew points will help take the edge off of
these warmer temperatures.
In the evening, winds will become calm-light and skies will clear.
Ample radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to fall into
the upper 60s and low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Hot and dry conditions will continue through at least mid-week as a
strong upper high migrates from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the
Deep South. Sfc ridging only begins to retreat east of the
Appalachians, so the depth of the return flow remains limited, but
moisture will slowly increase.
Low-level thickness progs suggest temps a degree or two warmer each
day through Wednesday, by which time we could be flirting with 100
degrees especially in the Louisville Metro. Dewpoints remaining in
the lower/mid 60s will limit heat index values, but we could very
well see a triple digit heat index both Wednesday and Thursday.
Expect to be short of advisory levels, so any headline would be
duration-based, and we are not confident in 4 days of triple digit
heat indices so no headlines are planned.
Ridging starts to break down late in the week, so confidence in
the dry forecast is fairly limited for Thursday. Best rain
chances will be Friday with a broad northern stream trof
settling into the Great Lakes and pushing a weak cold front into
the Ohio Valley. Precip on Friday looks fairly scattered in
nature, and the change in air mass will be subtle and gradual,
with temps remaining near or still above normal, and lower
dewpoints not arriving until Sat night/Sunday. By Sunday the
precip chances should also be confined to south of the Western
Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the current forecast period.
High pressure centered close to the region should limit clouds to a
few cu this afternoon, with light SW winds generally less than 7 kt.
Tonight, little more than high clouds are expected at most forecast
sites. Crossover temps suggest that the chance for sub-VFR vis at
BWG should be lower than previous nights, so will keep VFR
conditions through the forecast period. More light SW winds and
mostly clear skies are expected tomorrow.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ Tuesday night
for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...CSG
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 1:45 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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