ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 7:11 PM EDT143
FXUS61 KILN 232311
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
711 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered east of the region will result in a
continued warming trend along with dry conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure centered over Pennsylvania is certain to keep dry
weather across the ILN area tonight. Sky cover will be scarce
with only a few cirrus evident on satellite. Under the mainly
clear and calm conditions, lows will range from the mid 50s to
low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather is forecast to continue through Saturday night as
high pressure moves gradually east. There will be some increase
in cloud cover as humidity rises in a layer around 5000 ft.
Temperatures boosted by warm advection on a southerly flow will
rise above normal into the mid 80s to around 90 Saturday
afternoon. Lows Saturday night will also be above normal, in the
mid and upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An anomalous mid level ridge will continue to build northeast into
the region Sunday into Monday. Although most of the period should
remain dry, can not rule out a stray shower/storm as some weak
embedded disturbances rotate southeast on the periphery of the
building ridge. Temperatures will continue to warm with mid 80s to
lower 90s for highs on Sunday with lower 90s on Monday.
Tuesday still looks to be the hottest day along with increasing
dewpoints as the upper high extends across the region. Highs will
mainly be in the lower to mid 90s with peak index values in the
upper 90s to the lower 100s.
For the period Wednesday/Thursday, the mid level ridge flattens a
little. There could be a weak front trying to move in from the
north. This may slightly lower temperatures, mainly north. It will
still be very warm/hot for late August, upper 80s to lower 90s. On
Wednesday, peak heat index values for the southern half will be in
the 95 to 100 degree range. Again, mainly dry, but low chances of
showers/storms can not be ruled out as perhaps the capping inversion
weakens slightly.
A more bona fide cold front is then expected to push southeast into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday into Friday night. This
weather system should provide a better chance for showers and
storms. This should be the last really warm day of the extended with
highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
Lows through the entire period will remain warm, mainly in the 60s,
with some lower 70s possible Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Outside of some intermittent valley fog at LUK late tonight,
VFR conditions will continue under high pressure. Winds will
generally be calm or very light tonight... becoming westerly at
5-10 knots on Saturday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 7:11 PM EDT---------------
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