PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 3:56 PM EDT436
FXUS61 KPBZ 221956
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
356 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Ohio will move slowly east across
Pennsylvania Friday and then settle along the Middle Atlantic
Coast over the weekend. Dry conditions with light winds and
plenty of sunshine are expected. Temperatures are expected to
gradually warm and be at least 5 degrees above normal over the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Another cool night on tap with readings 5 to 10 degrees below
normal
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Decent 500 mb height rises of roughly 60 meters are ongoing as
the upper low over ME continues to move away and 5960 meter
high builds over TX. 1026 mb surface high near CLE is expected
to drift east into Pennsylvania tonight with another decent
radiational cooling setup. Won't be quite as cool as recent
nights, but still a good bit below normal. Patchy river valley
fog is expected once again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Northwest flow with gradual warming expected
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Northwest flow with 500 mb heights around 5880 meters expected.
Another short wave trough currently over MN and Manitoba will
turn southeast across the Great Lakes and keep the very warm air
well southwest of the Upper Ohio Valley. However temperatures
will climb above normal with lower 80s on Friday and middle 80s
on Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Temperatures remain 5 to 10F above normal next week.
- Northwest flow with increasing heat and moisture and can't
rule out thunderstorms
- Severe to extreme drought in Ohio with little relief expected
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Northwest flow with 500 mb heights around 5910 meters is
expected with temperatures remaining in the mid to upper 80s.
The upper high moves into KS on Sunday, MO on Monday, and likely
IL by Tuesday. Looking at the Fuzzy Clusters, uncertainty
increases in how upstream troughs in the west eject over the top
of the ridge in middle of country and then drop southeast across
the northeast states, especially from Tuesday to Thursday.
Therefore possibilities range from increasing heat during the
middle of the week with upper ridge sitting over the eastern US,
to trough dropping across Ontario New York with height falls and
cooling across forecast area. Confidence obviously low on which
scenario will occur.
NBM MaxT probabilities of 90F+ are highest over the Ohio
drought counties by Tuesday, but then back off. It appears that
readings near 90F are likely over the southern Ohio Counties
along the I-70 corridor Sunday through Tuesday, and this may
continue later in the week.
Higher moisture and instability eventually works into the area
especially Monday and Tuesday with a slight chance of
thunderstorms on the tail of trough brushing through the area to
the north and east.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure continues to promote light northerly winds and
VFR conditions through the remainder of the day. A diurnal
sct/bkn cu field with cigs generally in the 4-5kft range will
trend towards a few/sct coverage with cigs increasing to 5-7kft
over the next few hours before dissipating altogether after
sunset.
Patchy river valley fog will be possible again overnight into
early Friday morning, but likely with lesser coverage and
density compared to recent mornings as a drier boundary layer
airmass settles into the region. Still, both NBM and hi-res
ensembles maintain sufficient probabilities (~30%) to warrant
inclusion of a TEMPO around sunrise at FKL/DUJ for localized
impacts to vsbys. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds
prevail throughout the remainder of the TAF period.
.Outlook...
High confidence in VFR and light wind as high pressure dominates
the weather regime through Saturday. Weak shortwave movement
within NW flow may offer low probability precipitation chances
along/ahead of a weak boundary to start the next work week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Craven
NEAR TERM...Craven
SHORT TERM...Craven
LONG TERM...Craven
AVIATION...Cermak
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 3:56 PM EDT---------------
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