PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 7:08 AM CDT898
FXUS63 KPAH 211208
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
708 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions will continue through Saturday.
- Small chances of showers and thunderstorms will sneak into
southern Illinois late Saturday night into Sunday morning,
otherwise dry conditions are expected into early next week.
- Below normal temperatures through tonight will rise to above
normal by/over the weekend, with even hotter readings possible
by early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024
Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024
Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region today
will slide over the central east coast by 12z Friday. Aloft our
region is under the influence of weak northwest flow today, and
broad upper level ridging to our west will move over the
central U.S. by Thursday. Some models squeeze out a smattering
of light precipitation in western portions of the PAH forecast
area today with a weak perturbation in the northwest flow.
However, moisture is very limited across the area, so we will
likely just see a few more clouds today at best. As we end up
under the upper level ridge for the end of the work week into
the first part of the weekend, conditions will remain dry. By
Saturday night into Sunday, models show a=a weak warm front
pushing through the area. The NBM produces small chances of
showers and thunderstorms in mainly portions of southern
Illinois north of Route 13 late Saturday night into Sunday
morning with the front. With better moisture availability, 20%
chances have been introduced. Beyond Sunday morning, model
blends keep our area dry, but confidence decreases with some
individual model solutions showing some weak surface features
that could eventually return some precipitation chances to our
region early next week.
The region will enjoy one more day and night of significantly
below normal temperatures, with both highs today and lows
tonight around 10 degrees below normal. Temperatures will begin
to moderate on Thursday, then a return of southerly winds Friday
will quickly push temperatures back to, or even a couple of
degrees above, seasonable readings Friday and through the
weekend. Following the passage of the warm front Sunday,
temperatures early next week will be 5 to 8 degrees above normal.
Dew points around 70 degrees will produce heat indices around 100
degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 708 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024
VFR conditions expected through most of the TAF period with
mainly just some mid and high clouds through the TAF period, and
FEW-SCT060 cumulus possible between 16-23z. Winds will be from
the northeast to east at 5-10kts, becoming light to calm after
00z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 7:08 AM CDT---------------
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