LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 10:34 AM EDT764
FXUS63 KLMK 231434
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1034 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Fair weather continues through the weekend.
* Above normal temperatures return Saturday and persist well into
next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
After another cool start this morning, temperatures have climbed
quickly into the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s as of 14Z. Mostly
sunny skies are observed across much of central KY and southern IN,
with a few areas of low-mid level clouds noted on latest visible
satellite. These clouds are associated with a pool of higher
moisture around 850 mb which has moved in from the lower Mississippi
Valley overnight, and there is a northeast to southwest oriented
gradient in moisture over the region this morning. As we head
through the late morning and early afternoon hours, expect
temperatures to continue warming into the 80s, with a mix of sun and
clouds over the area. The current forecast is on track at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
Early morning satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies across
the region with just a few high clouds passing through. Another
good night of radiational cooling is in progress, with our typical
cool spots and valleys in the upper 40s to lower 50s, while the
ridgetops are in the lower-mid 60s. For the remainder of the
overnight hours, no significant weather is expected.
For today, upper level ridging will continue to increase across the
region with the surface level flow turning to the southwest yielding
a better return flow pattern. We should see temperatures moderate a
little more with readings in the 83-88 degree range.
For tonight, tranquil and quiet weather will continue. Radiational
cooling will not be as prevalent due to the light southerly flow
expected through the overnight period. As a result, lows tonight
will be a bit warmer with readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
Dry weather continues through the weekend with hot temperatures
returning Saturday as upper ridging over the southern Plains expands
eastward. Temps on Saturday will touch 90 in quite a few spots, with
most getting solidly into the 90s on Sunday and for a few days
beyond. Dewpoints will at least be manageable by August standards,
generally in the lower 60s, which will take the edge off the heat.
High confidence in a dry forecast through at least Monday as the
ridging holds strong.
By Tuesday the ridging starts to break down as an upper trof works
its way into the Rockies, but the NW-SE oriented ridge axis is
nearly overhead at that point. Model soundings don't show a strong
capping inversion, but mid-level temps are very warm, around 10-12C
at 700mb. If we don't get convection, temps could get quite hot
given H8 temps pushing 25C. At this time, we'll keep the
unseasonably hot and dry forecast going into Thursday morning, with
a slight chance for showers and storms Thu afternoon as a slow-
moving cold front moves into the Ohio Valley. However, confidence in
the dry forecast is noticeably lower Tue-Wed.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
VFR conditions will persist through the valid TAF period, with no
restrictions to vis, and high-based diurnal cu popping under sct-bkn
cirrus. Light winds from the E-SE this morning will veer to S-SW by
midday as we start to mix down return flow, but speeds remain at or
below 6 kt. Once we lose heating around sunset, look for backing to
SE again.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 10:34 AM EDT---------------
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