PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 6:26 AM CDT553
FXUS63 KPAH 191126
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
626 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather is expected through at least next weekend.
- Temperatures and humidity levels will be below normal through
Thursday before a warming trend begins next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024
Northwest flow aloft will allow surface high pressure to build
across the Quad State through Wednesday. Temperatures and
dewpoints will bottom out Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s.
High pressure aloft will then build eastward over the Quad State
by the weekend. There was an increasing consensus for the upper
high to linger over the region into early next week, but then
the 00Z GFS came in. It is squashing the high Sunday night into
next Monday resulting in more northwest flow. The GFS would
bring a chance of rain for at least northwest portions of the
region Sunday night into Monday. The GFS seems to be an outlier
for now, so the forecast remains dry and hot through next
Monday.
Temperatures will increase each day from Thursday through next
Monday. The NBM has readings up into the middle 90s for most of
the region Sunday and Monday. With deep mixing expected,
dewpoints will be stuck in the 60s, so the heat index will not
be much of a concern. However, afternoon relative humidity will
drop below 40% over portions of the region Friday through
Monday. If the dry conditions persist deep into next week, fire
danger may eventually become elevated.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024
MVFR ceilings will linger over KEVV and KOWB through much of
the morning before lifting to VFR levels. North winds will
gusts 15-20kts for much of the day at all sites. A persistent
light breeze tonight should prevent fog formation.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 6:26 AM CDT---------------
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