JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 20, 3:48 AM EDT863
FXUS63 KJKL 200748
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
348 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday.
- Dry weather will persist through early next week.
- Above normal temperatures return into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT TUE AUG 20 2024
The center of an upper level ridge is currently rotating over New
Mexico. The associated ridge axis extends northward across the
Plains and through central Canada. Further east, a trough axis
remains positioned over the East, with an embedded short trough in
the process of cutting off as it rotates southeast across southern
Quebec. At the surface, high pressure is centered over Ontario,
with ridging fanned southward through the Great Lakes and
middle/lower Mississippi Valley. Northerly flow associated with
the high is advecting in cooler and drier air across eastern
Kentucky. Current temperatures range from the mid 50s north of the
Mountain Parkway to the lower 60s south of Hal Rogers Parkway and
Highway 80, where more clouds have hung on. Further north, valley
fog is seen expanding on satellite, where more persistent
clearing has taken place.
The models remain in very good agreement through the short term,
with the cutoff low to move southeast over portions of New
England with time, bolstering the trough in the East. Meanwhile,
the ridge axis to our west will gradually pivot east, aligning
from Ontario through the Upper Midwest and into the central
Plains by late Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure will
nudge east, generally expanding further across the Ohio Valley
through the period. This will all result in seasonably cool and
dry weather across eastern Kentucky.
Once river valley fog burns off through mid-morning, few to
scattered cumulus will be seen, generally peaking in areal coverage
through early this afternoon, before mixing out through the rest
of the day. Temperatures will rebound into the mid 70s, closer to
the 25th percentile of the blended guidance. The clearer skies to
start out with, lighter surface winds, and drier dew points,
will allow for the typically cooler valleys to bottom out in the
mid 40s, closer to the 5th to 10th percentile of the blended
guidance. Upper 40s to lower 50s will be commonplace elsewhere.
Valley fog will also be seen once again, but should form a bit
later in the night, given the drier dew points to start out.
Wednesday will be mainly sunny, with perhaps just a few cumulus
forming. Temperatures should top out similarly to today, generally
mid 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2024
The forecast period begins with an upper-level trough digging toward
the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure will remain
present; however, with upper-level flow out of the north-northwest,
below average temperatures will be advected into the region.
Confidence in these forecast below average temperatures is high as
ensembles such the ECMWF's EFI has 80% to 90% of its members are
presenting a very good chance of these cold temperatures occurring.
Highs for the first part of the forecast period are forecast to be
in the low to mid-70s with overnight lows in the upper-40s to low-
50s. With forecast clear skies in place, the more sheltered valleys of
eastern Kentucky could experience overnight lows in the mid-40s.
As the trough ejects to the northeast, height rises, from a building
ridge over much of the southern U.S., will continue to keep dry
weather over the area but temperatures will begin to warm back to
more seasonal normals. Staring Friday and persisting through the
remainder of the period; highs will climb into the mid-80s on Friday
to low-90s by Sunday. Also, overnight lows are forecast to climb on
this scale as well with overnight lows topping out in the upper-50s
to low-60s by Saturday night into Sunday. Since the air mass that's
building is a drier airmass, heat indices will be fairly close to
the forecast highs.
Otherwise, a quiet forecast period is expected as high pressure will
be dominate. Temperatures will start below average but will climb
back to seasonal normals. Valley fog is expected each night but will
burn off by mid-morning and the area will return to full sunshine
and dry weather.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT TUE AUG 20 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of the
period; however, IFR or lower river valley fog will be seen
through 13z or so, before dissipating. Have kept this away from
the terminals, given the light northerly winds in place, as well
as a few cumulus occurring at times. Northerly winds will peak in
the 5 to 8 kt range during the afternoon, before diminishing by
dusk.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 20, 3:48 AM EDT---------------
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