ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 7:36 PM EDT308
FXUS61 KILN 192336
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
736 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and a dry airmass will be in place across the
region through the rest of the week. Below normal temperatures
are expected through Wednesday, before a warming trend develops
through the second half of the week. Warmer and more humid
conditions are expected to return by next weekend, but dry
weather is expected through the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Satellite imagery shows that stratocumulus is still rather
extensive across the region. While there are some indications
that clouds may be starting to diminish with loss of heating,
particularly in western counties, it appears that a usual
diurnal decrease in convective cloud cover will be rather
delayed. And with northerly flow persisting through the night
resulting in a fetch off of Lake Erie, and for at least part of
the area an even longer fetch off of Lake Huron, expect at least
some cloud cover to continue through the overnight, especially
across eastern counties.
Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds across the region Tuesday morning will scatter/mix out
into mid/late afternoon. Could even see a few sprinkles in
central OH as the NNE flow off of Lake Erie will channel/advect
some slightly better moisture into central OH. This lake
effect/enhanced axis of higher cloud cover and a few sprinkles
may linger into early afternoon in central OH, but most spots
remain dry.
Tuesday will likely be the coolest day of the stretch as highs
only reach into the lower to mid 70s, even with quite a bit of
late day sunshine for much of the area. With a tremendously dry
airmass in place, the diurnal temp swings by Wednesday through
Friday will be impressive. As sfc high pressure moves closer to
the ILN FA Tuesday night and skies trend clear, very good
radiational cooling conditions will evolve, allowing for temps
to bottom out in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Cannot completely
rule out a few rural/sheltered mid-40s readings by daybreak
Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The blocking pattern with a highly amplified ridge stretching from
the Hudson Bay down through the Four Corners region remains in place
for the start of the extended period. This translates to continued
dry conditions with mostly sunny skies through the remainder of the
work week. In fact, we'll have PWATs about 2.5 sigmas BELOW normal
across the Ohio River Wednesday/Thursday and, while we've had some
recent rainfall, the upcoming period of dry conditions may
exacerbate current drought conditions across much of northern/
eastern Kentucky and southern/eastern Ohio.
The surface high pressure that has been in place over the Great
Lakes region will continue to sag southeast through the week as the
ridge deamplifies slightly while shifting east, eventually placing
the ILN CWA on the backside of the high. This means we will see a
slow uptick in heat as we head into the end of the week. Along this
line of thinking, by Friday, we'll be back to high temperatures in
the 80s across the CWA. By the weekend, 50th percentile temperatures
reach the 90s. Despite this, we still won't see much moisture return
and overall, any rainfall chances remain pretty low. PWAT anomalies
look to return to near normal by the end of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Stratocumulus
across the region will likely diminish somewhat early but then
increase again late tonight into Tuesday. But expect cloud bases
to remain above 3kft. Northerly winds will diminish a bit to
fall below 10 kt, but then increase slightly during the day.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 7:36 PM EDT---------------
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