PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 10:17 AM EDT238
FXUS61 KPBZ 191417
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1017 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will favor the I-80 corridor and mountains
today, diminishing this evening. This will begin a long period
of dry and seasonably cool weather before a warm up next
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Residual showers continue today, favoring the I-80 corridor
and mountains.
- Cooler temperatures are likely.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Diurnally-driven showers are through today, favoring the I-80
corridor (lake enhancement) and mountains (upsloping) through
the morning hours, then likely lingering longest this afternoon
across the mountains. Stray showers are possible elsewhere, but
probabilities remain low, and it is likely many outside of these
two regions remain dry through the day.
Some clearing is possible over eastern Ohio this afternoon, but
most of us will remain at least partly cloudy through the day.
With weak insolation and cold advection in northwest flow, area
temperatures will remain in the 60s for much of western PA and
northern WV. Probabilities for reaching the lower 70s are higher
across eastern Ohio, which will benefit for greater insolation
this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures continue through
mid-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Any lingering showers will diminish this evening as the trough
axis shifts well east of the area and dry/cold advection
strengthens in northwest flow. Overnight temperatures will fall
back into the 50s, with lows dropping to values not seen since
early June.
Strong height falls and cold air advection will provide cool
conditions again Tuesday, with area temperatures running around
10 degrees below the average. Colder air will likely lead to Cu
development Tuesday afternoon, but dry and quiet conditions are
expected otherwise.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Long range ensembles support dry weather with seasonably cool-to-
near-normal temperature through the week.
- Probabilities for above-normal temperatures increase next
weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Long range ensembles indicate that upper low pressure will
slowly meander across the Northeast through much of the week
while fairly amplified ridging continues over the Rockies. This
puts us squarely under northwest flow through midweek, favoring
dry conditions. Temperatures should slowly climb through the
week with building surface high pressure and eventual return
flow by late week. Temperatures look to rebound back above
average by late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold advection under northwesterly flow will maintain IFR / low MVFR
stratus today. Surface winds will be out of the NNW at 10 to 20
knots through the day.
.Outlook...
VFR conditions return by Tuesday under high pressure will
continue through next weekend.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley
AVIATION...88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 10:17 AM EDT---------------
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