IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 5:13 AM EDT579
FXUS63 KIWX 170913
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
513 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-There are chances for showers and a few thunderstorms this
weekend. Severe weather is not expected. Highs will be in the
mid 70s and low 80s. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s.
-Hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan
through Monday, with a moderate swim risk today becoming a
high swim risk Sunday into Monday night. A beach hazards
statement is in effect for Sunday into Monday night. High wave
action and life threatening currents are expected.
-Dry next week with partly to mostly clear skies. Highs will be
in low to mid 70s through Wednesday, then climb into the upper
70s and low to mid 80s for Thursday into the weekend. &&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 511 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
An upper low will settle overhead for this weekend, bringing chances
for showers and a few thunderstorms (non-severe) as we deal with
various waves rotating around the low. This morning we have a cold
front to our west (over Chicago) that will move through our forecast
area today, eventually providing a focus for precipitation chances
as we get further into daytime heating, in addition to some better
mid level lapse rates (around 6.0 C/km) and window of better bulk
effective shear (0-6 km around 20-30 knots). Expect scattered
showers this afternoon in addition to a few rumbles of thunder.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s and low 80s.
Gusty westerly winds today will cause waves on Lake Michigan to
build to 2 to 3 feet, with periods around 4-5 seconds. Breaking
waves and currents are expected. Have a moderate swim risk for both
Berrien, MI and La Porte, IN County beaches.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will dwindle outside of peak
heating tonight into early Sunday as the upper low continues it's
eastward progression. Expect shower activity to become more confined
to the lakeshore (some enhancement there with slight cold air
advection) and further east (along/east of I 69) as the last of the
shortwaves swing through our area. Greatest chances will be Sunday
afternoon when we can get around 200-600 J/kg sfc based CAPE and
perhaps some better mid level lapse rates (some models suggest this
is disjointed and more behind the front). Have chance/likely pops
for the Sunday afternoon and evening period, with potential for a
few thunderstorms.
Winds shift more north-northwest behind the front into Sunday night
and strengthen, with waves on Lake Michigan building closer to 4 to
9 feet. A beach hazards statement is in effect from Sunday into late
Monday night for the expected high wave action and resulting
dangerous currents (nearly direct approach and wave periods of 6 to
8 seconds). Those visiting the beaches should plan to stay out of
the water. A small craft advisory is also in effect for that period.
Monday into Saturday will be dry as an upper level ridge builds in
overhead. By Monday afternoon the expansive ridge will extend from
the desert southwest/Southern plains all the way up into the
Canadian Prairies, with surface high pressure encompassing the Upper
Great Lakes. This will slowly meander eastward and flatten through
next weekend as several shortwaves attempt to break it down on the
northeastern periphery. Expect cooler temperatures through
Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s.
Thursday into the weekend temperatures rebound into the mid to upper
70s and low to mid 80s. Lows will climb into the upper 50s and low
to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
The disturbance responsible for the broken line of showers and
occasionally some thunderstorms, was advancing quickly east with
KSBN in the clear and KFWA not far behind. Area of storms did
dissipate prior to arriving to KFWA although one cell has
developed south of the airport moving east. While a few showers
may develop for another hour or 2 at KFWA, have opted to start
with a dry forecast. Pocket of MVFR cigs situated across central
WI will drop SE, reaching KSBN towards 12Z before mixing out
during the morning. Clouds appear likely to mix out prior to
arriving to KFWA.
Thereafter, potential for some showers and maybe a rumble of
thunder become uncertain with some left over instability during
peak heating. Have introduced a VCSH at KSBN for several hours
late AM into the afternoon, but left KFWA alone.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through late
Monday night for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through late
Monday night for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Fisher
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 5:13 AM EDT---------------
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