IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 14, 5:59 AM EDT552
FXUS63 KIWX 140959
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
559 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and some storms possible Thursday, best chance
Thursday night. Localized heavy rainfall also possible
Thursday evening into early Friday morning.
- Additional showers/thunderstorms possible Friday and
Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024
Mostly clear skies today with an upper level ridge over the
area. Highs today will get to the low to mid 80s for most
locations away from the Lake Michigan shoreline. The ridging will
continue to move eastward today with the ridge axis setting up
over the Ohio River Valley by late tonight and early Thursday
while a low pressure circulation over the upper Midwest also
moves eastward. We are watching closely as an expected
convective system looks to develop over IA and northern IL that
may impact the western parts of the CWA on Thursday morning as
it pushes southeastward, however the better chances for
thunderstorms across the area will be Thursday afternoon with
somewhat better instability, however still mainly less than 500
J/kg, across the area Thursday afternoon, and increased clouds
will keep surface highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 0-3 km Bulk
Shear values will be around 25 to 30 knots. SPC does have us
down for a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. Also, the WPC
has us under a slight risk to marginal threat of excessive
rainfall on Thursday into Friday with PWATs over 1.5 inches. At
this time the best chances of the heavier rainfall amounts will
be the southern parts of the CWA but localized heavy amounts
elsewhere with any thunderstorms will certainly be possible.
As the upper low continues to move eastward over the Great
Lakes region on Friday, additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms Friday morning and again Friday afternoon/evening
with the elevated instability and increased lift of the low
pressure disturbance. A bit better shear (around 30-35 kts)
will be available on Friday morning and Friday afternoon with
closer proximity to the frontal interface as an eastward
pushing surface cold front moves through beginning late Friday
and into Saturday morning. SPC again has the area listed as
marginal for severe thunderstorms on Friday as well. Highs in
the low 80s Friday.
A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible early Saturday
and again Saturday afternoon and once again on Sunday afternoon
with a northwesterly flow in control. Highs this weekend will be
cooler with highs only in the 70s. A slight warming trend with
return to drier conditions early next week as ridging pushes
back into the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 558 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024
High pressure should drift east and allow return flow to begin.
Skies should remain clear to mostly clear with scattered
cumulus/stratocu mid afternoon into the evening. Winds should
remain light.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 14, 5:59 AM EDT---------------
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