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477 FXUS64 KMOB 130911AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL411 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Wednesday night)Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024Mostly dry weather conditions prevail through Wednesday with only the immediate coastal counties and southeastern Mississippi seeing any isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Best chances for storms will be today as a plume of 2" PWATs overspreads southeastern Mississippi into southwestern Alabama.With residual dry air aloft it would not be surprising to see some stronger wind gusts in any thunderstorm downbursts, however these should remain sub-severe. Outside of the storms, the heat is on with highs topping out in the upper 90's to near 100 for most locations this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. Likewise with the gradually increasing moisture content, afternoon mixing will be a little less robust than prior days helping to keep surface dewpoints a bit higher across southeastern Mississippi into southwestern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This will set the stage for the return of the heat advisories as afternoon heat indices soar into the 108 to 112 range today and Wednesday. Another heat advisory will be needed Wednesday for the same areas, perhaps expanding a tier or two of counties inland. A LOW risk of rip currents remains through Wednesday. MM/25&&...EXTENDED TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024The strong upper level ridging will persist through the remainderof the week before breaking down over the weekend as ananonymously strong upper trough digs across the eastern UnitedStates. Hot and increasingly humid conditions should developthrough the end of the week. Deep moisture over the western GulfCoast into the Arklatex will advect eastward which should help togradually increase chances for showers and thunderstorms with atypical land and sea breeze cycle on Thursday. So most of thestorms should be confined offshore and along the immediate coastThursday morning and gradually spread inland by afternoon with theinland penetrating sea breeze. The sea breeze should not advancetoo much north of I-10 as coastal water temperatures are near 90degrees. Temperatures will still remain hot on Thursday with hightemperatures reaching into the upper 90s to near 100 degreesacross most areas, except middle 90s along the immediate coast. Asthe sea breeze advects moister low level humidity into coastalareas during the afternoon, the combination of high heat andhumidity may be sufficient again for heat advisory conditions. By Friday, the begins to retrograde west as an upper trough digsacross the Middle Mississippi Valley. This trough combined withdeep moisture and ample daytime instability should support thedevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms areawide.Temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 90s but withincreasing humidity, heat indices will may again exceed heatadvisory criteria mainly along the coast and across southeastMississippi. Ensemble guidance continues in good agreement for the weekend withthe upper trough amplifying east of the Mississippi River. Infact, nearly all of the guidance is suggesting mid level heightswill likely be two standard deviations below the mean across theMidwest, eastern Tennessee Valley, into the Mid Atlantic Statesthrough the weekend and early part of next week. This places ourarea firmly beneath unseasonably strong northwesterly flow aloft.This synoptic pattern favors the development of mesoscaleconvective systems moving from northwest to southeast across ourforecast area. There may be enough deep layer shear and plenty ofinstability to support episodic severe convective winds with anywell formed bowing lines both Saturday through Sunday. We willcontinue to monitor this potential over the next few days andprovide additional details as the pattern evolves. This patternmay also support the potential for some much needed rainfallacross our area, which has been increasingly dry lately. The onlylimiting factor may be the dry and increasing drought conditionsas of late. This could result in lower moisture levels than wouldnormally occur in this type of pattern regime. This will bemonitored over the next few days to see how things develop. Hot temperatures and higher humidity can be expected to continuethrough the weekend outside of thunderstorm activity. Therefore,there may be a continuation of high heat indices approaching orexceeding heat advisory criteria through the weekend, with theonly potential relief coming in the form of convective activity./JLH &&.MARINE...Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024A typical diurnal pattern will remain across the marine area with the sea breeze keeping winds more southerly during the day and land breeze keeping winds more northerly at night. A more persistent light southerly flow will become established by late week into the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible along and south of the coast each day. No impacts are expected outside of locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. MM/25&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 98 76 99 78 97 78 95 77 / 30 10 20 10 30 20 50 20 Pensacola 96 79 96 77 97 79 94 78 / 20 10 20 10 40 20 50 20 Destin 93 80 93 80 95 79 93 80 / 20 10 20 10 30 30 40 20 Evergreen 98 72 98 72 98 74 96 73 / 10 10 10 0 20 10 40 20 Waynesboro 99 74 100 73 99 74 96 74 / 10 10 20 10 20 10 50 20 Camden 97 72 97 72 96 74 96 73 / 10 0 10 0 20 10 40 20 Crestview 98 75 100 74 98 74 96 75 / 20 10 20 10 40 20 50 20 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-261>266.FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204.MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
