MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 12, 11:54 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...533
FXUS64 KMOB 130454
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1154 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
VFR conditions prevail across the forecast area through the
period. An isolated shower or storm is possible mid to late
afternoon in the vicinity of the coast. Winds generally remain
light and variable around 5 knots, with winds out of the southwest
to west through the morning shifting to southerly near the coast
by mid afternoon in the wake of the sea breeze boundary. Any
storms could temporarily reduce ceilings and visibility locally
in addition to variable gusty winds. MM/25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
A dry airmass over the forecast area will continue to modify, as
moisture moving inland over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi
River Valley shifts eastward to over the Southeast. Reason is a
light general westerly low level flow on the north side of a
surface ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. By 12z/7am Tuesday,
guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values of 2" approaching
western portions of the forecast area. In combination with a
southwesterly component to winds as a seabreeze develops during
the day Tuesday, moisture levels around 2" spread east, but
generally remain over the coastal counties of the forecast area.
Rain chances return to the forecast area for Tuesday, but an upper
ridge building east over the Southeast will help to temper
coverages. Any convection is expected to remain off shore this
afternoon though tonight. As a seabreeze develops and moves inland
Tuesday afternoon, enough instability (MLCapes of 1500-2000J/kg)
develops for showers and thunderstorms to develop. A few may
become strong to marginally severe, with guidance advertising
DCapes generally in the 600-900J/kg range.
The upper ridge will help keep daytime temperatures at or above
seasonal norms for today and Tuesday. Temperatures topping out in
the mid to upper 90s are expected this afternoon and Tuesday. Heat
indices in the upper 90s to low 100s are expected today. Tuesday,
with the increase in moisture, Heat indices rise into the 100-110
degree range, especially closer to the coast. *UPDATED* Will be
issuing a Heat Advisory for Tuesday for Perry Co to Santa Rosa Co
Tonight, with the increase in moisture levels, low temperatures
see an uptick from previous nights. Low 79s are expected north of
Highway 82, mid to upper 70s south.
With light winds over the Gulf, the risk of rip currents remains
low through the week. /16
SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday night)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
Hot and dry conditions continue to prevail across the forecast
area with only isolated to locally scattered shower and
thunderstorm potential each afternoon. Best chances will remain
primarily nearer the coast in the vicinity of the sea-breeze
boundary and perhaps better chances into late week as upper
troughing begins to build and amplify into the eastern CONUS.
Upper ridging continues to shift into the forecast area through
Thursday, gradually breaking down and weakening Friday and
Saturday a series of upper troughs dig into the eastern U.S.,
with the deepest trough digging in Saturday afternoon through
Sunday. High temperatures will be hot (around 4 to 8 degrees
above normal), reaching from 95 to 100 degrees each day. Low
temperatures will be around 4 to 8 degrees above normal, and
should only be in the middle to upper 70's for all of the forecast
area Tuesday night through Friday night, perhaps cooling a degree
or two over the weekend. Locations along the coast may never make
it out of the lower 80's for lows most nights. As temperatures
continue to heat up mid-week and into the weekend, additional
heat advisories will likely be needed. Depending on if we can keep
higher dewpoints during the afternoon hours, there may be a few
locations that meet excessive heat warning criteria of 113+ heat
indices, primarily across coastal counties. Heat index values on
any given day will likely be in the 105 to 110 range, with locally
higher up to 110 to 115 nearer the coast the latter part of the
week. A Low risk of rip currents remains through the extended
period. MM/25 /22
MARINE...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
Surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will bring a general
westerly flow through the midweek. A daytime seabreeze/night-
time land breeze will bring a northwest/southwest shifting in
direction. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected, mainly along and south of the coast. No impacts expected
other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 76 98 77 99 77 98 78 95 / 10 20 10 20 10 30 20 40
Pensacola 78 97 80 98 79 95 79 93 / 10 20 10 20 10 30 30 30
Destin 79 95 80 97 80 94 79 93 / 10 20 10 20 20 30 30 30
Evergreen 72 97 73 98 74 97 75 96 / 0 10 0 10 10 30 10 30
Waynesboro 73 98 75 99 74 99 75 97 / 0 10 0 10 10 20 10 30
Camden 72 94 72 95 73 95 75 93 / 0 0 0 10 10 20 10 30
Crestview 73 99 75 99 75 96 75 95 / 0 20 0 20 10 30 20 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ261>266.
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for FLZ201>204.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ075-076-078-
079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 12, 11:54 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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