JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 1:25 PM EDT988
FXUS63 KJKL 131725
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
125 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures gradually rise to near normal levels by Wednesday and
remain there through Friday.
- Humidity and the possibility of showers and thunderstorms will
increase late in the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2024
Current forecast is looking good. Just some tweaks to the hourly
grids and an update to the zones to remove morning wording. No
other changes to the forecast package at this time.
UPDATE Issued at 1037 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2024
Interesting gravity waves tracking across the region from the
upstream MCS moving into the MO Valley this morning. This appears
to be helping to enhance the existing cloud cover across the area.
Radar trends show sprinkles diminishing somewhat. Model solutions
suggest this trend should continue through the remainder of the
day as shortwave energy exits our area to the east-southeast.
Updated grids to bring them in line with latest surface obs.
Otherwise, forecast is on track. Will update up the zones a bit
later this morning to freshen up the product by removing morning
references.
UPDATE Issued at 726 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2024
Based on satellite and radar trends, have extended higher Sky
cover and mention of sprinkles in the forecast through mid-
morning, with an overall decreasing trend into the afternoon.
There will likely be a few isolated locations with measurable
rain, but this fits within the 5 to 10 PoPs across much of the
forecast area, though it doesn't get mentioned in the point-and-
click and zone forecasts. Otherwise, the forecast grids were
initialized with the latest hourly observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2024
The short-term period through Wednesday afternoon will remain mostly
uneventful as surface high pressure remains in control below an
active mid-level jet stream aloft. The most eventful weather occurs
this morning as a passing mid-level disturbance brings a few
sprinkles or light rain showers to a few locations. However, the
vast majority of locations will not see any precipitation at all.
Clouds decrease through the morning as drier air moves into the
region from the northwest, with this drier air mass remaining in
place through the remainder of the short-term period, with only
passing high clouds from time to time.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2024
Upper level troughing across much of the Ohio Valley will remain the
main story through much of the extended. We start off the period
Tuesday night into Wednesday, which is consequently the one day that
we have rising heights across the area. This day KY will find itself
between a departing upper level low, and another developing system
upstream across the Northern Plains. Consequently, Wednesday will
also be our last dry day of the period.
Heading into Thursday, though heights are still technically rising
across the state, a shortwave will be strengthening to our west,
eventually developing into a closed upper level low. This will
translate to a strengthening system at the surface as well, which
will push eastward and into the Ohio Valley Thursday. There is
already quite a bit of difference in the models at this point, with
most keeping east KY dry throughout the day Thursday, then moving
precip in Thursday night into Friday. However, there are also a
couple of solutions (including the NAM), which brings the precip in
during the day Thursday. Kept with the NBM given the uncertainty,
which is also favoring the later precip start times, but does
introduce some isolated pops late in the day Thursday. Better precip
chances will definitely be Friday, however, as the system continues
to push eastward and heights begin to fall again as the trough
starts to overtake the Ohio Valley. A surface cold front will also
pass through the state on Friday as well.
From this point forward, the Ohio Valley will basically be the midst
of another sustained troughing period, on the receiving end of any
disturbances that moves through. Again, there is quite a bit of
disagreement in the models, especially in any subtle shortwaves, so
stuck with the NBM. This kept precip chances in the forecast just
about every day, peaking with afternoon heating.
Thursday and Friday will likely be the warmest days, with highs in
the mid and upper 80s, ahead of the next approaching system and the
return of southerly flow at the surface. After this frontal system
moves through, cooler temperatures will return as NW flow takes hold
once more. Highs will generally top out in the lower 80s for the
rest of the forecast period. Did include some ridge/valley
differences in temps and winds overnight, namely on the nights where
clouds and precip were least expected. This included Tuesday night
and Sunday night into Monday night. Even these last 2 days could
change if precip chances increase, but given the potential for
clouds and ongoing precip the other days, didn't have enough
confidence to lower temps and winds in the valleys beyond what was
already forecast at this point. Will continue to monitor with coming
forecasts in case more detail does need to be added here for
ridge/valley differences.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2024
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period. A general
trend towards less cloudiness is expected through the period.
This would appear to be confirmed based off of regional satellite
this afternoon. With less cloud cover overall, conditions will be
more favorable for the development of some radiation within the
valleys tonight. However, with cross over temps being so low,
expect more impactful valley fog with remain closer to water
sources. Thus not expecting VSBY impacts at any of our terminals.
Winds will be light and variable through the period, with an
increasing tendency to veer out of the east-southeast with time.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...RAY
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 1:25 PM EDT---------------
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