BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 3:52 AM EDT563
FXUS61 KBOX 100752
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
352 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers linger this morning as a cold front exits east of
southern New England. Trending sunnier this afternoon with
highs more summer like in the 80s, humidity is slow to fall
though. Sunday is more comfortable with slightly cooler
temperatures and noticeably less humidity. A rouge shower is
possible Sunday afternoon, but the over theme is dry with fair
weather clouds. Most of the upcoming workweek will feature
generally dry weather with a mix of clouds and sun, with
seasonable temperatures and low humidity levels. Monday and
Thursday could offer enhanced cloudiness and better chances for
hit or miss showers, but no significant impacts are expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Updated: 3:45AM
What was Debbie is now a surface low pressure system moving towards
the mouth of the Saint Lawrence River and a trailing cold front is
responsible for the showers this morning. Good news, the front does
push east of southern New England this morning, around 8AM to 10Am,
but could become hung up over the southeast waters. Did use a blend
of the CONSALL and high-res models like the HRRR, HREF, and NAM3KM
to derive POPs, maintaining 'chance' and 'slight chance' POPs
through 2pm for Cape Cod and the Islands.
As the rain ends and the front moves off shore this morning clouds
will clear quickly from west to east. Latest satellite observations
do show low stratus left over due to high low-level moisture. Do
expect this to erode as drier air is advected into the region. Our
winds are starting to veer to the west from the south, these winds
should settle around west/southwest. As of 3AM, observations in
western New York and northern Pennsylvania show dew points have
fallen into the upper 50s! Give it some time this morning, but would
expect around 6AM to 9AM we start to see clear conditions across far
western MA/CT and it may take a few hours for eastern MA/RI to clear
out as the front may stall right off shore. Latest HREF shows that
there are SCT to BKN group of low level clouds over the I-95
corridor through at least noon, while the Cape and Islands may not
see full sun until late this afternoon.
Dew points remain elevated this morning, still in the 70s but are
expected to fall through the 60s this afternoon. BUFKIT forecast
soundings show the a well mixed boundary layer, this will helps with
lowering of the dew points. Over all afternoon highs are slightly
above seasonable by early August standards, generally in the middle
to upper 80s. Not out the question a rouge 90F reading pops-up in
parts of northeast MA in the Merrimack Valley.
Breezy winds ease this morning, generally around 5 to 10 mph, while
the Cape and Islands remain breezy into this afternoon with winds
between 10 and 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph.
If your plans bring you to the beaches today or on the water be
aware of Small Craft Advisories (more on that in the Marine section
of the AFD), as well a High Surf Advisory for seas building between
5 and 10 feet, this will result in dangerous breaking waves in the
surf zone as well as dangerous rip currents for beaches along the
coast of Rhode Island and south coast of southeast Massachusetts. In
addition, have included eastern facing beaches of Massachusetts in a
Rip Current Statement for dangerous rip currents. Take extra caution
if heading to the beach.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Updated: 3:45AM
Tonight: High pressure and surface ridging building in from the
southwest, allowing for winds to ease and possibly go calm across
the interior. This set up allows for effective cooling, did use a
cooler blend of model guidance to lower overnight temperatures by a
few degrees. Generally overnight lows are in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Now, if we can get the winds to ease/go calm, fog could become
a concern overnight into Sunday morning. Given the recent rains it
is not out of the question. Though, much of the hard hitting
guidance does not support this outcome, but is something to monitor
with today's model guidance.
Sunday: Mainly dry day. But there is a weak shortwave moving across
the region and with a cold pool aloft, 700mb temperatures are around
0C, diurnal cumulus clouds and a spot shower or two is possible.
Otherwise, comfortable temperatures in the upper 70s across interior
southern New England, while the coastal plain are in the lower to
middle 80s. And this will feel refreshing as dew points dip into the
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Updated: 3:45AM
Highlights:
* Tranquil weather for most of the upcoming workweek, with a mix of
sun and fair weather clouds on most days.
* More focused periods of showers for Mon and again on Thurs, but
nothing impactful.
* Seasonable temperatures (upper 70s to mid 80s) with low levels of
humidity.
Details:
Overall no significant changes compared to prior forecasts for this
period, with good overall agreement in the 00z ensembles. Broad
cyclonic flow aloft will continue to govern our weather pattern for
much of the forecast period; though there are a couple of days where
we could see a more focused period of showers, all in all, it is a
relatively quiet, tranquil weather regime.
Initial rather potent shortwave disturbance aloft over the eastern
Gt Lakes moves into the Northeast states on Mon. Notable edits were
made to NBM in the Mon to early Mon evening timeframe. It's a pretty
strong shortwave that moves in and with ensembles indicating some
shallow convective instability in conjunction with broader vertical
motion associated with the shortwave, expect Mon to at least feature
increasing cloudiness toward a partly to mostly cloudy look. Models
are showing some spotty QPF in this period too, although fcst
soundings show a well mixed PBL that could keep shower coverage more
isolated. Not a washout by any means but expect increasing
cloudiness and hit-or-miss showers during the daytime hrs Mon,
decreasing in coverage later in the day as shortwave moves east and
diurnal heating wanes. Besides Monday, the other day that looks to
feature diurnal showers is around Thurs, with GFS and ECMWF
indicating another vort maxima in broader cyclonic flow digging
southward. Shower coverage here should also take on a diurnal trend
with more clouds/off-and-on showers during the daytime, then
decreasing after sundown. But between these two days, no significant
or impactful weather is expected, and instability looks meager
enough to limit thunder.
When it comes to temperatures and humidity levels...expect pleasant
midsummer weather with seasonable temperatures through the period.
Should see highs in the mid 70s to around 80 for Monday, then adding
a degree or two each day toward the low to mid 80s by late in the
week. With broader cyclonic flow and NW flow aloft, humidity levels
should be comfortable through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update: Moderate confidence through 12z, with improving
confidence this afternoon.
Through 12z...Moderate Confidence.
Ongoing -SHRA, ends from west to east 08z to 12z, do think will
linger over the Cape and Islands through as late as 16z. CIGs
are a mixture of MVFR/IFR, will see some localized LIFR before
sunrise. Southerly winds 10 to 15 knots, gusts 20 to 30 knots.
There remains a VERY low chance of TSRA, if it were to occur it
would be for the Islands between 08z-12z. Since there is low
confidence, did leave it out of the TAF.
Today...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in
timing.
Overall dry, but a spot shower or two may linger in eastern MA
an hour or two past 12z in eastern MA. CIGs improve from west to
east as well this morning, becoming VFR for western terminals
shortly after 12z, while eastern terminals, including BOS may
take closer to 16z to become VFR. Cape and Islands will be last
to improve to VFR, which may take until 18z/21z. Winds are out
of the west/southwest around 8 to 12 knots. Cape and Islands
remain breezy with a wind speed around 10 to 15 knots.
Tonight...High Confidence.
Dry runways and mainly VFR. Low stratus may redevelop across the
Cape and Islands between 00z/04z with MVFR ceilings. Light winds
overnight. Given the recent rains, there is a low chance for
areas of fog to develop.
Sunday...High Confidence.
Dry runways and VFR. Generally light southwest winds. There is a
possibility of a sea breeze for eastern MA terminals.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Breezy. Isolated SHRA.
Monday Night through Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Updated: 3:45AM
Today and Sunday...High Confidence.
Center of low pressure from what was Debby moves towards the mouth
of the Saint Lawrence River, a trailing cold front moves across the
waters this morning with periods of rain, and thunder is possible
mainly over the southern outer waters. Gales have been converted to
Small Craft Advisories for Saturday, which will linger over the
southern waters through tonight. High pressure builds down from the
north on Sunday.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Isolated rain showers.
Monday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for MAZ007-015-016-
019.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ230-
231-233-234-236-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ232-
250.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/Dooley
MARINE...Loconto/Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 3:52 AM EDT----------------
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