JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 1:55 PM EDT353
FXUS63 KJKL 101755
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
155 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below average temperatures and dry weather will persist into
early next week.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances gradually increase Wednesday
through Friday of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 155 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2024
Once again, obs were blended into the forecast without any
substantive changes.
UPDATE Issued at 1035 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2024
Have blended latest obs into the forecast, including increased
sky cover in far southeast KY latest this morning. However, for
the day as a whole there are no substantive changes.
UPDATE Issued at 636 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2024
There are no significant changes with the early morning update.
Will update the NDFD grid database but will not resend forecast
text products since there are no changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2024
Tranquil, dry weather will last through the short term period as
surface high pressure prevails. An upper low will meander around
southeast Ontario and southwest Quebec during the period, with a
broad trough around it over much of the eastern CONUS. Surface
high pressure over the Great Plains late today will slowly move
east to the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys by dawn on
Sunday. The combo of the upper trough and northwest low level flow
east of the approaching high will bring relatively cool and dry
air to the area by summertime standards. By Sunday morning our
coldest valleys will probably be near 50 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2024
The forecast period starts with the forecast area at the base of a
longwave trough that's slowly beginning to exit the region. At the
surface, high pressure will be in place and the area will experience
dry weather. At the base of the trough, west to northwesterly flow
will advect cooler air into the region which will keep temperatures
overnight Sunday below average as lows are forecast to be in the
lower-50s in the valleys and upper-50s on the ridgetops.
Temperatures begin to warm to more seasonal norms for Monday as low-
level flow turns to the west-southwest and weak WAA builds into the
region. In this morning model suites, they've backed off on the
potential for an approaching system Monday afternoon/evening. The
GFS continues to paint a picture of an MCS moving toward the CWA but
diminishing as it approaches, which would make sense as the
diurnally driven system will approach in the late hours of the
evening. However, since the GFS is the outlier, opted to keep the
NBM solution and leave the forecast area dry for Monday.
Models come back into better agreement for the middle of next week
as a shortwave develops over the Central Plains and slowly
approaches the area for Wednesday. The associated warm front is
forecast to lift into the region Wednesday morning with increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms. The boundary appears to stall
out over the area which will allow for the potential for daily
showers and thunderstorms through the end of the period.
Overall, the period starts with below average temperatures but into
early next week, temperatures will moderate and return to seasonal
norms. Highs are forecast to be in the mid-80s with overnight lows
in the low to mid-60s. Increasing chances of showers and storms will
build in for the middle of next week and persist through the end of
the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2024
VFR conditions were present at TAF issuance and will mostly
persist through the period. An exception will be late night and
early morning valley fog. However, it is unlikely to affect TAF
sites. Winds will be light, generally from the northwest
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 1:55 PM EDT---------------
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