JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 12:07 AM EDT643
FXUS63 KJKL 100407
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1207 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below average temperatures and dry weather arrive this weekend, and
carry into early next week.
- A small potential for showers and thunderstorms returns around
the middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1208 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2024
Grids were updated based on recent observations and trends. This
led to no substantial changes at this time.
UPDATE Issued at 831 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2024
Hourly grids were updated to account for greater cloud cover at
present from the Big Sandy region northwest to the Lake Cumberland
area and then southwest to near the Laurel Lake and Lake
Cumberland regions. This cloud cover will shift east across the
area tonight associated with a passing sfc and upper trough.
Hourly temperatures and dewpoints were also freshened up based on
these recent observations and trends. Valley fog should still
develop after midnight in the valleys generally to the south of
the Mountain Parkway and near and to the east of Interstate 75,
dissipating toward 9 AM EDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2024
Tranquil, dry weather will last through the short term period. An
upper low will meander around southeast Ontario and southwest
Quebec during the period, with a broad trough around it over much
of the eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure over the Great Plains
late today will slowly move east to the mid Mississippi and lower
Ohio valleys by dawn on Sunday. The combo of the upper trough and
northwest low level flow east of the approaching high will bring
relatively cool and dry air to the area by summertime standards.
By Sunday morning our coldest valleys will probably be near 50
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 439 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2024
The long-term forecast period begins Sunday morning with mean
troughing over much of the eastern CONUS around an ~559 dam parent
low over the upper Ottawa Valley. Low amplitude ridging is found
west of the Mississippi River across most of the western CONUS up
to a weak trough axis over the prairies along the US/Canadian
border. An ~581 dam high is drifting further poleward over
northcentral Canada. At the surface, high pressure is centered
over the mid-Mississippi Valley but extends northwestward to
Nunavut/Northwest Territories.
The eastern upper level troughing will only slowly shift east as
the Canadian high/weak western ridging merge and translate
eastward to near the Mississippi River by Tuesday evening. A
disturbance rides down the ridge and over our region late Monday
and early Tuesday, but most guidance suggests little fanfare over
eastern Kentucky. Model guidance suggests that additional troughing
will develop, approach and pass over the Ohio Valley late in the
week but there is considerable spread in the details. At the
surface, high pressure dominates over the Ohio Valley until the
middle of next week when a warm front lifts northeastward bringing
increased moisture and some rain/thunder chances, mainly for the
last couple days of the period.
In sensible terms, expect fair weather through Tuesday with mostly
sunny days and clear to partly cloudy nights outside of the typical
valley fog. Temperatures (highs/lows) will moderate from the
upper 70s to lower 80s/lower to upper 50s on Sunday/Sunday night
to the mid 80s/mid 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Deeper moisture starts to work in by Wednesday, bringing back
isolated rain/thunder chances (primarily near the Tennessee
border) during the afternoon. Rain and thunder chances then expand
across the entire area on Thursday (20 to 40 max PoP) and increase
Friday (40 to 50 max PoP). The threat for thunderstorms will
mainly be during the afternoon and early evening coincident with
peak heating. Forecast high temperatures remain mainly in the
middle 80s for Wednesday through Friday while low temperatures
range mainly in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2024
Aside from some mainly valley fog between about 07 and 13Z which
could affect KSJS, KSME, and KLOZ, the TAF sites are not expected
to be affected as surface high pressure builds east into the OH
Valley region. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 12:07 AM EDT---------------
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