JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 4:40 AM EDT484
FXUS63 KJKL 080840
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
440 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be found around the area
through Friday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening
hours.
- The remnants of Hurricane Debby will be moving northward to the
east of Kentucky tonight and early Friday. The system's precip
shield will probably just reach into eastern Kentucky for a time
as she passes, with the greatest potential found near the
Virginia and West Virgnia borders.
- Much cooler and drier air will arrive behind the departing
tropical system for the weekend and carry into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT THU AUG 8 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows the circulation of Debby southeast of
Kentucky with its cyclonic flow starting to affect far eastern
parts of the state. This is keeping some multi-layered mid and
upper clouds over much of the the eastern half of the JKL CWA.
This in turn is hindering the formation of dense valley fog in
these locations along with limiting of any terrain distinction.
Earlier showers and a few slow moving thunderstorms left behind
soaked soils in a couple of spots across eastern Kentucky from
yesterday afternoon and these areas are also see an uptick in the
fog early this morning - locally dense. In addition, some of the
late evening showers in the far east faded out just after
midnight with the radar scope remaining quiet. Currently
temperatures (and dewpoints) are mainly in the upper 60s to lower
70s, amid a light and generally northeast sfc wind flow.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to come
into better agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast mainly with respect to the core of Debby. They all
depict her getting picked up by the westerlies and weakening in a
trek north through the eastern continental divide - staying east
of Kentucky as she passes tonight. During the day Friday, this
circulation will become just a weak trough progressing easterly
through the Mid-Atlantic States with a much larger area of 5h
troughing descending into the Ohio Valley later that evening. This
will leave Kentucky with faster mid-level, nearly zonal, flow but
still not much in the way of energy and impulses that could
influence sensible weather at the sfc. Given the now good
agreement and smaller model spread through Friday have gone with
the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids with little
adjustment needed aside from the incorporation of the latest CAMs
guidance for PoPs this afternoon and again on Friday.
Sensible weather features one more rather warm and humid day
through eastern Kentucky with just a chance for a shower or
thunderstorm this afternoon and evening from Debby across this
part of the state. Any convection is expected to be weaker and
more progressive than certain of the cells we saw yesterday that
led to incidents of flash flooding. Looking at similar conditions
again tonight with enough clouds around likely limiting the
potential for dense valley fog and a larger terrain distinction
seen in the temperatures. For Friday, northwesterly flow will
make for a cooler day with shower and any very small storm chances
confined to far eastern portions of the JKL CWA.
The main changes to the NBM starting point again consisted of
adding in PoPs details from the CAMs this afternoon and again on
Friday. Only made minor changes to temperatures from the NBM
tonight for minor terrain distinctions.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 409 AM EDT THU AUG 8 2024
The flow pattern aloft in the extended will feature a large trough
of low pressure moving steadily through the Great Lakes and into New
England over the weekend and into the first of next week. As this
trough moves away, a ridge of high pressure will build in behind it.
This ridge will usher a dry and much cooler air mass into the
region. This ridge is forecast to remain in place for several days,
and will bring generally northwesterly to northerly flow to our area
along with mostly clear skies. The influx of cooler air will make
for a short period of below normal temperatures. Daily highs are
expected to average from the upper 70s to lower 80s around the area
Saturday through Monday. After that, with ample strong sunshine
expected each day, we should see a modest warm up to near normal
highs in the mid 80s around the area. With mostly clear skies and
light winds on tap, conditions will be prime for nightly ridge
valley temperature splits. We will also likely see late night and
early morning valley fog through out the extended. Based on the
latest model data, it appears that out next chance for rain will not
arrive until the middle of next week, as a southern stream system
moves by to our south. Any thunderstorms that move through the area
Wednesday through Thursday could produce cloud to ground lightning
from time to time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU AUG 8 2024
VFR conditions were reported at issuance time and largely VFR
conditions are expected through the period. The main concern is
for some early morning fog. While it will probably affect the
deeper valleys most prominently, there is more uncertainty
regarding the TAF sites, with KLOZ, KSME, KSJS, and KSYM the most
likely to be affected. Have included a tempo for fog through dawn
at these sites. Once this fog lifts and dissipates towards 14Z,
VFR will generally prevail, with the very small potential for
diurnally driven convection in the afternoon - generally east of
the terminals. Winds will be light and variable - away from any
convection.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 4:40 AM EDT---------------
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