WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Aug 6, 1:52 PM CDT673
AGUS74 KWCO 061858
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #220 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
152 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024
WHAT: Flash, urban, and small stream flooding
WHERE: Eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, southern New York,
southern Connecticut
WHEN: Through this evening
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: 2 - 5", locally higher (HRRR)
Rainfall Rates: 1 - 3"/hr (HRRR)
Soils: 45 - 60 % 0 - 10 cm RSM (NASA SPoRT)
DISCUSSION...
Multiple rounds of convection will bring periods of heavy rainfall to
the area of concern and increase the threat of urban and flash
flooding. Soils are generally around normal, but with the convective
heavy rain rates, infiltration capacity may be locally overwhelmed
and lead to excess runoff. Given the heavily urban nature of the I-95
corridor, flash flooding of urban areas may be considerable.
The NWM Short-Range Forecast continues to highlight the potential for
rapid-onset flooding (ROF), especially around the greater New York
City metropolitan area. The HRRR has been pretty consistent late this
morning and early this afternoon, so ROF probabilities are generally
on the order of 25 to 75%. Annual-exceedance probabilities (AEPs) are
mostly 50% or greater, but lower AEPs are observed across northern
New Jersey, suggesting some out-of-bank rises will be possible. Given
the potential high rain rates and training of thunderstorms,
potentially considerable urban and flash flooding will be possible.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations
//JAW
ATTN...WFO...BOX...BGM...OKX...CTP...PHI
ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Aug 6, 1:52 PM CDT----------------
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