CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 1:54 AM EDT236
FXUS61 KCLE 090554
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
154 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough extends from Tropical Storm Debby across the eastern Great
Lakes. A cold front will move east across the area on Friday as the
remnants of Debby move north towards New York. Another trough will
remain across the eastern Great Lakes through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 pm update...
We updated hourly POPs this evening with the heavy and slow
moving thunderstorms activity over north central Ohio. Cloud
tops are starting to warm with the associated convection
indicating that this nearly stationary line of storms is
starting to weaken.
Previous discussion...
Humidity is on the increase again today as dewpoints reach the
lower 70s. Isolated showers have started to develop along and
east of a trough axis that extends from near Ashland to Medina
towards Chardon. This inverted trough extends from Tropical
Storm Debby still well south of the area over the Carolinas.
Instability is building with ML CAPE values of around 1000 J/kg.
Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected to
increase in coverage through the late afternoon and early
evening hours along this boundary and where any outflow
boundaries may kick off additional activity. Model soundings do
initially show some warming near 600mb which could inhibit
vertical growth until mid levels moisten and cool more into the
evening. Any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall with slow storm motion. Coverage and
duration will likely be limiting factors for a flooding but can
not rule out a Flood Advisory if a persistent cell develops. A
decrease in coverage is expected overnight as we lose
instability, especially after midnight.
On Friday the remnants of Debby will track north across western
Pennsylvania into New York. At the same time an upper level through
will move into the Central Great Lakes shunting the deep layer
moisture generally east of our forecast area. We will hold onto a
chance of rain across portions of Northeast Ohio and a little higher
in Northwest Pennsylvania as a cold front sweeps from west to east.
Conditions will tend to dry out from west to east with highs only
reaching around 80 degrees. with a little higher pop in NW
Pennsylvania but conditions will tend to dry out from the west.
Humidity will trend much lower behind the front into Friday
night. Breezy northwest winds on Friday will also allow for a
much more comfortable feel with winds of 10-15 mph and gusts to
20-25 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will dig into the northeast this weekend,
bringing a period of relatively cooler and less humid weather. As
various shortwaves and surface troughs drop through they may focus
increases in clouds and perhaps a few showers, especially downwind
of Lake Erie. Overall am expecting a mainly dry weekend with highs
in the 70s and lows in the 50s/near 60 but there are some low POPs
in at times, especially Saturday night and Sunday downwind of Lake
Erie from far northeast OH into northwest PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Troughing will persist over the northeast through much of next week
with confluence behind it encouraging a mainly quiet week of
weather. Temperatures will start the week on the cooler side of
average (highs on either side of 80 with lows on either side of 60)
and will modestly warm through the period back to near seasonal
values (highs in the low-mid 80s, lows in the 60s). POPs are
generally below forecast inclusion for the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
North/northwest flow and moisture from Tropical Depression Debby
will produce shower chances from roughly KCLE to KMFD and at
KYNG/KERI tonight into early Friday. Confidence in showers
reaching KMFD is low at this time, so opted to leave any mention
of showers with this update. Any showers that move directly
over terminals, especially KERI, could produce non-VFR
visibility. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will likely develop from
KMFD to KCLE and locations east early Friday morning with patchy
fog possible at KMFD/KCAK/KYNG. VFR ceilings may hold on at
KERI due to southerly flow and drying effects from downsloping,
but ceilings should deteriorate to MVFR as winds shift to the
north/northeast near or shortly after 12Z Friday morning.
Moisture should decrease throughout the day Friday as the
remnants of Debby move into the interior northeastern CONUS and
a cold front crosses the local area and expect VFR at all
terminals by early to mid afternoon Friday. Conditions will
improve from west to east behind the cold front.
Generally expect light and variable or northerly winds
overnight with flow shifting to the northwest and increasing to
10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots Friday morning and
afternoon. Winds diminish to 5 to 10 knots after 00Z Saturday,
but may remain slightly elevated along the immediate lakeshore
through the end of the TAF period.
Outlook....Non-VFR possible with periodic and isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday,
primarily in northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwest winds will increase to 15 or so knots on Friday as the
remnants of Debby pass well to our east, with winds shifting to
the west-northwest and increasing to near 20 knots Friday
evening and night. Winds remain generally west-northwest in the
15-20 knot range through Sunday before shifting more westerly
and becoming lighter (less than 15 knots) Sunday night into next
week. A period of Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards
Statements will likely be needed Friday evening and night with
conditions flirting with criteria through the weekend. Will wait
one more cycle before issuing the headlines since the
conditions don't begin until 24 or so hours from now and since
the end times of any headlines is uncertain. With that said,
choppier conditions will develop during the day Friday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FZ
NEAR TERM...KEC/Griffin
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 1:54 AM EDT---------------
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