CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 4:13 PM EDT569
FXUS61 KCLE 082013
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
413 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough extends from Tropical Storm Debby across the eastern Great
Lakes. A cold front will move east across the area on Friday as the
remnants of Debby move north towards New York. Another trough will
remain across the eastern Great Lakes through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Humidity is on the increase again today as dewpoints reach the lower
70s. Isolated showers have started to develop along and east of a
trough axis that extends from near Ashland to Medina towards
Chardon. This inverted trough extends from Tropical Storm Debby
still well south of the area over the Carolinas. Instability is
building with ML CAPE values of around 1000 J/kg. Showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
through the late afternoon and early evening hours along this
boundary and where any outflow boundaries may kick off additional
activity. Model soundings do initially show some warming near 600mb
which could inhibit vertical growth until mid levels moisten and
cool more into the evening. Any thunderstorm that develops will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall with slow storm motion. Coverage
and duration will likely be limiting factors for a flooding but can
not rule out a Flood Advisory if a persistent cell develops. A
decrease in coverage is expected overnight as we lose instability,
especially after midnight.
On Friday the remnants of Debby will track north across western
Pennsylvania into New York. At the same time an upper level through
will move into the Central Great Lakes shunting the deep layer
moisture generally east of our forecast area. We will hold onto a
chance of rain across portions of Northeast Ohio and a little higher
in Northwest Pennsylvania as a cold front sweeps from west to east.
Conditions will tend to dry out from west to east with highs only
reaching around 80 degrees. with a little higher pop in NW
Pennsylvania but conditions will tend to dry out from the west.
Humidity will trend much lower behind the front into Friday night.
Breezy northwest winds on Friday will also allow for a much more
comfortable feel with winds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 20-25 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will dig into the northeast this weekend,
bringing a period of relatively cooler and less humid weather. As
various shortwaves and surface troughs drop through they may focus
increases in clouds and perhaps a few showers, especially downwind
of Lake Erie. Overall am expecting a mainly dry weekend with highs
in the 70s and lows in the 50s/near 60 but there are some low POPs
in at times, especially Saturday night and Sunday downwind of Lake
Erie from far northeast OH into northwest PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Troughing will persist over the northeast through much of next week
with confluence behind it encouraging a mainly quiet week of
weather. Temperatures will start the week on the cooler side of
average (highs on either side of 80 with lows on either side of 60)
and will modestly warm through the period back to near seasonal
values (highs in the low-mid 80s, lows in the 60s). POPs are
generally below forecast inclusion for the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
An inverted surface trough will be focused across northeast
Ohio this afternoon and act as a focus for scattered thunderstorms
to develop. Some MVFR clouds remain across North Central Ohio
but expect most areas to see clouds lift to VFR by 20Z.
Scattered thunderstorms will also start to develop by 20Z and
focused initially along a line from Ashland to Medina to
Chardon. CLE/CAK/MFD could all see a thunderstorm in the 20-00Z
window and have included a tempo at these terminals. Expecting
the focus for convection to be east of YNG and ERI so removed
the TEMPO for thunderstorms in this area and replaced with a
VCTS or vcsh. Otherwise, most terminals across North Central and
Northeast Ohio will see MVFR clouds fill in overnight with IFR
possible in the 10-13Z window. Could also see some MVFR
visibilities. Ceilings are expected to lift and clear from west
to east on Friday morning.
Winds will generally be 10 knots or less with direction varying
from southeast to north. Winds will tend to become northerly at
all sites by 12Z Friday.
Outlook....Non-VFR possible with periodic and isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms Thursday nightly through this
Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwest winds will increase to 15 or so knots on Friday as the
remnants of Debbie pass well to our east, with winds shifting to the
west-northwest and increasing to near 20 knots Friday evening and
night. Winds remain generally west-northwest in the 15-20 knot range
through Sunday before shifting more westerly and becoming lighter
(less than 15 knots) Sunday night into next week. A period of Small
Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements will likely be needed
Friday evening and night with conditions flirting with criteria
through the weekend. Will wait one more cycle before issuing the
headlines since the conditions don't begin until 24 or so hours from
now and since the end times of any headlines is uncertain. With that
said, choppier conditions will develop during the day Friday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 4:13 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
