JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 7:31 PM EDT991
FXUS63 KJKL 062331
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
731 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures and humidity will peak today and Wednesday, with
afternoon heat indices near 100 degrees in some locations.
- Uncertainty exists with the possible impacts of Tropical Storm
Debby on eastern Kentucky.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024
The forecast is on track heading into the early evening period,
with no substantive changes needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024
The latest surface analysis across the CONUS shows much of the
activity confined to the eastern half. Tropical Storm Debby is
continuing to churn very, very, very slowly northeastward and is
currently over the Georgia/South Carolina state line. Cirrus clouds
associated with Debby's outer spirals are slowly drifting across far
southeastern portions of Kentucky. To the north, a surface low is
tracking through the Great Lakes with a warm frontal boundary draped
across the Northeast. A cold front is extending southwest, from the
surface low, back toward the Central Plains and will be the focus of
eastern Kentucky weather in a day or so. Locally, surface high
pressure is present over the area with low-level moisture favoring a
widespread deck of cumulus clouds across the region with
temperatures in upper-80s to low-90s and heat indices approaching
100 degrees.
The remainder of the day will remain dry with partly sunny skies and
temperatures maxing out in the upper-80s to low-90s with heat
indices approaching 100 degrees. Synoptically, the trough
responsible for the low tracking through the Great Lakes will pivot
northeast and drag the surface low closer to CWA overnight with
increasing chances of PoP but single digit PoP percentages exist
through the overnight into Wednesday morning. Overnight tonight,
mostly clear skies and increasing moisture from T.S. Debby will
favor fog development in the river valleys which will burn off
Wednesday morning.
Wednesday brings increasing PoP chances (20-30%) as T.S. Debby skirts
the far eastern portions of the area. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon before the
surface low, tracking through the Great Lakes, pushes Debby out of
the Commonwealth effectively bringing PoP chances to an end across
the CWA as high pressure builds back into the region. With deep
moisture remaining in place, fog development will be likely again
Wednesday night which will burn off early Thursday morning.
Overall, the period will be highlighted by hot and humid conditions
as highs are forecast to climb into the upper-80s to low-90s today
and Wednesday. Increased moisture will allow for heat indices to
climb toward 100 degrees as well. Overnight lows will be in the
upper-60s to low-70s with valley fog. Also, two passing
disturbances, a surface low out of the Great Lakes and T.S. Debby
will bring isolated to scattered chances of showers and storms
before high pressure returns for the end of the period.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 452 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024
Our long term period upper level pattern will start with the
remnants of Hurricane Debbie in the vicinity of South Carolina,
the prevailing westerlies aloft to our north, and ridging to our
east and west, leaving us in a col. At the surface, our flow
should be northeasterly, influences by the remnant low to our
southeast. Based on forecast soundings, won't completely rule out
a few showers or thunderstorms popping up over us along the
periphery of the tropical system on Thursday, but most precip
should be further southeast in the deeper moisture. Have limited
our POP to a silent 10%.
One of the biggest questions for the local forecast is the timing
and track of Debbie's remnants, with a fair amount of variation
still existing in models. The highest POP, in likely category,
will be on Friday over extreme eastern KY, while locations west of
the foothills only have a slight chance.
Once the system tracks northeast and is absorbed into a large
upper trough deepening and dropping south into the eastern CONUS,
much drier air will arrive for our area from the north. This
should yield largely clear skies from Saturday into Monday, with
below normal temperatures. The coldest valleys may even see
morning lows dip below 50 by Sunday morning.
The eastern CONUS trough should pull out to the northeast Monday
and Tuesday, leaving west northwest flow aloft here. The GFS shows
MCS remnants arriving under this flow aloft on Monday night or
Tuesday. Do not have any confidence in those forecast details at
that time range. However, will consider it a possibility and not
ignore it altogether, and will carry slight chance POPs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024
VFR conditions will prevail for the most of the period at all TAF
sites. Increased moisture, courtesy of T.S. Debby, will allow for
valley fog development after 06Z which will persist through 13Z
before dissipating. Fog could lower flight categories into
IFR/MVFR for a few hours until it burns off and VFR will return
for the remainder of the period. Did include mention VCTS
beginning at 17z through the remainder of the period given most
models initiate isolated showers and thunderstorms across eastern
Kentucky Wednesday afternoon. Light and variable winds will
persist through the period, though gusty and erratic winds can be
expected with any showers or storms Wednesday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 7:31 PM EDT---------------
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