NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Aug 5, 11:00 AM EDT398
WTNT44 KNHC 051455
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024
Debby's center made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region earlier
today around 1100 UTC with an estimated intensity of 70 kt. Since
landfall, the system has moved over northern Florida while gradually
weakening below hurricane intensity. Assuming a typical rate of
weakening over land, the current intensity is set at 60 kt. WSR-88D
Doppler velocities still show hurricane-force winds aloft, at an
elevation of about 3500 ft, over the northeastern quadrant of the
cyclone. Therefore, some damaging winds could still be brought down
to the surface in the more vigorous convection near the inland path
of Debby.
Debby has been moving through a break in the subtropical ridge with
an estimated initial motion of 030/7 kt. Steering currents are
expected to weaken some more, resulting in a further decrease in
forward speed. Most of the track guidance turns Debby eastward,
with the center moving off the coast near the Georgia/South
Carolina border in about 36 hours. Debby should move very slowly
near the South Carolina coast through 60 hours or so. Then, a
mid-level ridge builds slightly to the northeast of the cyclone,
which should push the system back inland over the latter part of
the forecast period. The official forecast track is a blend of the
simple and corrected dynamical consensus models, TVCA and HCCA.
Continued weakening is expected while the center of Debby remains
over land tonight and Tuesday. By late Tuesday and thereafter,
some restrengthening is anticipated as the center moves offshore.
However the amount that the cyclone re-intensifies is dependent on
how far out over the Atlantic the system moves and how long it
remains over water. The current official forecast shows only
modest restrengthening, given the uncertainties.
Going forward, the biggest threat from this slow-moving system
system is extreme precipitation and flooding over the southeastern
United States.
Key Messages:
1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.
2. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue in the Storm Surge
warning area along the Gulf Coast of Florida, including the Tampa
Bay area, through this afternoon.
3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
Gulf Coast of Florida today within the Tropical Storm warning area.
4. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida
to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm Surge and
Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for portions of these
areas, and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued
later today. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow
any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 30.2N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 31.7N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0000Z 31.9N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 07/1200Z 32.1N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 09/1200Z 34.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 37.4N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Aug 5, 11:00 AM EDT---------------
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