IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 8:33 PM EDT036
FXUS63 KIND 040033
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
833 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly Clear Tonight; Patchy Fog possible
- Mostly Sunny and very warm on Sunday
- Warming trend, highs returning to near 90 early
- Chance of showers or storms Tuesday-Tuesday Night
- Milder, less humid trend from Wednesday onward
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024
An upper ridge, broad surface high pressure and a dry column per Hi-
Res soundings, will lead to mostly clear skies and light to calm
winds in a good radiational cooling setup. However, with surface dew
points stuck in the upper 60s to lower 70s, temperatures will get no
lower than that. A shallow inversion will develop per soundings and
combine with the calm winds and high surface humidity to bring a
chance of patchy shallow fog to central Indiana overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024
Synopsis -
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure in place
over KS/NB. A trough of low pressure was found stretching from
Quebec to the middle Atlantic States. Central Indiana was mainly
under the influence of the strong high to the west. Light N-NW
surface flow was in place and dew points remained rather humid
across the area, in the upper 60s to near 70. GOES16 shows partly
cloudy skies across Central Indiana. Mainly a few CU clouds have
developed, mainly across the eastern parts of the forecast area,
closer to the trough area to the east. Aloft, water vapor showed a
large ridge over the western CONUS along with an extending ridge
axis stretching from KS toward WI and MI. This was resulting in
subsidence over IL and IN as seen on the water vapor imagery.
Tonight and Sunday -
Little overall change will be expected in the weather over the next
24 hours. Models show the upper ridge axis to the northwest will
push across Central Indiana tonight, allowing continued subsidence.
This will allow for advancement and expansion of surface high
pressure from the plains into the Ohio Valley. Forecast soundings
tonight again show a dry column with light to calm winds. Models
suggest dew point depressions to fall to 1-2F. Dew points across
Central Indiana and the region remain quite moist, in the upper 60s
to near 70 with no change in air mass expected. Given the clear
skies and calm winds, patchy fog will be possible overnight. Expect
lows in the upper 60s under mostly clear skies and fog late tonight
through daybreak.
On Sunday the surface high will be more entrenched across the Ohio
valley. The ridge axis aloft will be have passed to the southeast,
but anticyclonic NW flow will remain aloft. Models suggest a weak,
poorly organized wave could pass across Indiana on Sunday, however
mid and upper level moisture are lacking, along with instability as
a mid level inversion will be in place. Once again, a few diurnal
afternoon CU will be expected. Highs should be close to persistence,
in the upper 80s to around 90.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024
Sunday night through Tuesday...
Humid and very warm to marginally hot mid-summer conditions will
continue amid mainly rain-free conditions through the early week...
as the northeastern portions of the broad western CONUS subtropical
ridge build into the Midwest. Any organized storm chances should
stay north along a warm/stationary frontal zone type gradient that
will be stretched west-east across the southern Great Lakes. AMple
sun and generally modest SW/S surface flow will boost afternoon
temperatures into the low 90s for most location on both Monday and
Tuesday...with heat indices approaching 100F both days to the south
and west of Bloomington. A few t-storms cannot be ruled out Tuesday
over N/NE zones as the boundary pulls south amid weak low pressure
crossing the northern Midwest.
Wednesday through Friday...
The slow approach of a broad, positively-tilted, early autumn-type
upper trough from interior Canada into the Great Lakes...will allow
the gradual advancement of corresponding amplified surface high
pressure from the Canadian western Plains to all of the north-
central CONUS. Central Indiana should catch the southeastern corner
of this ridge's generous extent...which will translate to a slow
transition to milder and less-humid conditions through the
midweek... ahead of possibly slightly below normal/cool mornings
into the mid to upper 50s by the end of the long term.
Only moderate confidence is this expected trend to more pleasant
conditions with a potential tropical system over the southeastern
CONUS, whose moisture plume could be transported towards the Ohio
Valley by late week, although chances here so far are low. Therefore
maintaining a rain-free long term, except for potential widely
scattered RW's / isolated TRW's accompanying the transition through
the Tuesday night timeframe. The normal max/min at Indianapolis
through August 14 is 85/66.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 640 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024
Impacts:
- MVFR or briefly worse fog possible 06z-11z
Discussion:
Surface high pressure and a dry column per Hi-Res soundings will
result in little cloud cover tonight. As winds become very light or
calm, radiational cooling will lead to a low level temperature
inversion and with marginal boundary layer moisture perhaps MVFR or
briefly worse conditions in fog. overnight.
Winds will become southwest but light Sunday afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...MK
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 8:33 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
