CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 4, 9:14 AM EDT250
FXUS61 KCLE 041314
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
914 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be influential across the area today. A cold
front will approach the area from the north for Monday and stall
out. Low pressure will move east along the front on Tuesday, but
this low will dive southeast toward the Ohio River for
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9:14 AM EDT Update...
Radiation fog has dissipated region-wide as diurnal convective
mixing of the boundary layer taps into somewhat drier air aloft.
This same process will allow any lingering mist to dissipate by
10 AM EDT this morning. Made minor changes to our wind,
temperature, and apparent temperature forecast for late this
morning through early evening based on expected evolution of a
lake breeze over/within several miles of Lake Erie. Rest of
forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance.
Previous Discussion...
High pressure will be in control today with subsidence behind
the upper trough departing the region to the east. Weather will
be dry and temperatures will be a touch warmer than normal with
highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Most of tonight should be dry
as well with the incoming system being a factor for Monday and
Tuesday. Will have increasing clouds and temperatures may try to
stay in the lower 70s for overnight lows with heat being
trapped.
For Monday, there will be a cold front moving into the region
from the north. The air mass ahead of the front will be fairly
favorable thermodynamically for showers and storms with
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, if not 90, and dew points
near 70. However, the forcing with the front itself is fairly
weak as the front is slowing and moving almost perpendicular to
the supportive upper level jet. The jet energy is well removed
to the north of the area and will ultimately limit the shear
across the region and how much convection may generate and how
organized convection may get. Therefore, have no higher than a
40% chance of showers and storms in the area, despite a Day 2
Marginal/Slight Risk for severe weather from SPC. The
thermodynamics for hail or wet microbursts with winds are there,
but the confidence in storm coverage is very low and may be best
outside of the local area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A broad mid/upper trough will settle south over the lower Great
Lakes and New England Monday night through Tuesday night, with a
surface cold front over the region dropping south of the local area
Monday night. Surface low pressure will move along this front from
the Plains into the Ohio Valley through Tuesday night. Brief zonal
mid level flow and weak surface high pressure will try to build
across the local area Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will keep
shower/storm chances across the area Monday night with the frontal
passage and Tuesday as the low approaches from the west, with
primarily dry conditions by Wednesday. SPC Day 3 outlook highlights
the southern half of the area in a marginal risk for Tuesday,
although there is uncertainty if sufficient destabilization
materializes over the area with the surface boundary expected just
south of the area despite ample boundary layer/mid level flow, with
50 kts of deep layer bulk shear. Highs Tuesday will vary greatly
from north to south, dependent on the location and timing of the
surface front, with mid 70s north of the boundary to low/mid 80s
along/south of the front. Highs Wednesday will be cooler across the
entire area, with mid 70s to near 80 for highs. Lows Monday night
will be in the mid 60s to around 70, with lows Tuesday and Wednesday
night generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lower confidence forecast for the end of the week as deterministic
model guidance spread is high, complicated by the passage of the
remnants of Debby as it moves northeast along the Mid Atlantic
region. Primarily zonal flow over the area will keep temperatures
seasonable, with precip chances on the lower side for now. Some
indications that an inverted trough may setup an linger over the
area Thursday night and Friday which would bring higher precip
chances if it were to materialize. Highs will generally be in the
upper 70s to low 80s with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Fog across the region will last for the next hour or two before
mixing out with daybreak. High pressure across the region will
allow for generally clear conditions and light winds out of the
west to northwest. Clear conditions and the potential to
decouple may allow for more non-VFR fog/mist Monday morning and
have hit at KYNG, KCAK, and KFDY, as typical drainage locations.
Outlook....Non-VFR possible with isolated to perhaps scattered
showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet conditions on the lake today through tonight with high
pressure over the lake. A weak cold front will cross the lake Monday
with winds becoming northerly, although the wind speed should remain
10 kts or less through and behind the passage. Winds will increase a
bit a become northeasterly Tuesday as low pressure approaches the
region from the west and will persist around 15 kts through
Wednesday before diminishing Wednesday night. This could
necessitate a small craft advisory for the western basin Tuesday and
Wednesday. Flow will generally remain northerly through Thursday but
wind speeds should be 10 kts or less.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Greenawalt
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 4, 9:14 AM EDT---------------
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