PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 6:29 AM CDT702
FXUS63 KPAH 021129
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
629 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
with the highest chances over southwest Indiana and the
Kentucky Pennyrile.
- Drier and slightly cooler and less humid conditions will
arrive for this weekend, though the heat and humidity will
gradually return to the area next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024
An upper level trough is moving into the Ohio Valley this
morning while a front is beginning to move through portions of
southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois. Scattered showers and
storms are ongoing across the region along and ahead of this
front. Areas across far western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri
are still fairly warm this morning with temperatures in the
lower 80's atop dewpoints in the mid 70's. This is resulting in
CAPE values above 2000 J/kg. Instances of gusty winds are still
possible through the early morning but overall severe chances
seem low.
The front will continue to progress through the rest of the
region today as the upper trough continue to advance eastward.
Outside of this early morning activity, PoPs will largely be
limited to southwest Indiana, and the Pennyrile. Temperatures
will be cooler today with highs only mid to upper 80's for most
locations, and upper 80's to lower 90's across portions of
southeast Missouri. The rest of the weekend features dry weather
conditions as the upper trough moves off to the northeast and
surface ridging develops to the northwest. Increasing heights
will bring increasing temperatures over the weekend with highs
in the lower 90's Saturday and Sunday.
Moving into next week, broad ridging aloft develops across much
of the CONUS with lower heights across the Great Lakes and
Northeast. Increasing heights, and surface ridging will continue
to promote dry weather for much of next week. Temperatures will
rise into the mid to upper 90's Monday through Wednesday
resulting in heat indices rising into the 100 to 105 degree
range. Late next week there are signals that the ridge breaks
down with lowering heights across the northern plains. This may
result in slightly cooler temperatures by late next week, though
still near to above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024
Mostly VFR expected today and tonight. SHRA possible this
afternoon but limited impacts expected and only near EVV/OWB.
Northwest winds may gust upwards of 15-20kts at times this
afternoon. Uncertainty remains high with regards to fog
development tonight and for now only mentioned it at MVN.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 6:29 AM CDT---------------
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