CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 6:44 PM EDT308
FXUS61 KCLE 032244
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
644 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough continues to exit southeastward from our region through
this early evening. Behind the trough, a ridge builds from the
Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes through Sunday. A cold front
enters our region from the north on Monday. The front should stall
in vicinity of our area on Tuesday as a low moves from the Upper
Mississippi Valley toward the Middle Ohio Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
6:30 PM Update...
The trough axis is sliding SE of the region allowing broad
surface high pressure over the Midwest and western Great Lakes
this evening to build into the southern Great Lakes region. This
is quickly bringing drier air into the region with increasing
subsidence, so dropped remaining PoPs in the southeast areas
this evening. Remaining clouds over interior NE Ohio and
western PA will rapidly clear over the next couple of hours
setting the stage for patchy fog tonight as low-level moisture
remains elevated. The best chance for fog still looks to be in
interior NE Ohio where heavy rains occured earlier today, such
as in the Mount Vernon, Canton, and Youngstown areas.
Original Discussion...
A nearly vertically-stacked trough axis at the surface and aloft
extends from western NY to southwestern OH and continues to move
SE'ward. This trough axis is still expected to reach central NY
and southern WV by the wee hours of Sunday morning. Behind the
trough, a ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the Upper
Midwest and western Great Lakes through Sunday. Recent showers
and thunderstorms have generated extensive and stabilizing
outflow over much of the southeastern-half of our CWA, along
and ahead of the surface trough axis. However, pockets of weak
to moderate CAPE and non-excessive CIN belonging to parcels
rooted in the boundary layer will allow isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop via low-level convergence/moist ascent
along the trough axis and via self-destructive sunshine through
this early evening, especially in far-NE OH and interior NW PA,
where little or no previous convection has occurred today.
Periods of torrential rainfall are expected and localized
flooding remains possible as PWAT's remain unusually-high and
abundant low/mid-level moisture persists along/ahead of the
trough axis. Severe thunderstorms are not expected due, in part
to weak effective bulk shear and mid-level lapse rates,
respectively. Lingering shower/thunderstorm potential over
essentially the southeastern-half of our CWA continues to end
generally from northwest to southeast through this early evening
given the projected evolution of the weather pattern at the
surface and aloft, and stabilizing subsidence accompanying the
aforementioned ridge. Fair weather is expected CWA-wide later
this evening through Sunday as the ridge continues to affect our
region.
Areas of radiation fog are expected to develop late this
evening and especially during the predawn hours of Sunday
morning as clearing sky, weak or calm surface winds, and
lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall allow air
at/near the surface to cool to supersaturation. The greatest
potential for radiation fog formation exists in interior NE OH
and NW PA. Lows are expected to reach mainly the 60's around
daybreak Sunday morning. Any fog is expected to dissipate by
late morning as diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer
taps into relatively drier air aloft. Sufficient daytime heating
of surrounding land and a weak synoptic MSLP gradient will
allow a lake breeze to occur over/within several miles of Lake
Erie during the late morning through early evening hours of
Sunday. Late afternoon highs are expected to reach the lower
80's to lower 90's. The coolest readings are expected over/very
near Lake Erie and in the higher terrain of NW PA.
The ridge at the surface and aloft begins to exit toward the
east and southeast Sunday night. Simultaneously, cyclonic
WNW'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances begin to affect our region as a S'ward-moving cold
front approaches from the central Great Lakes. Primarily fair
weather is expected. However, isolated showers/thunderstorms
may outpace the cold front and overspread Lake Erie, far-northern
OH, and NW PA after midnight. Some thunderstorms may be strong
amidst moderate deep layer bulk shear and weak to moderate
CAPE/non-excessive CIN belonging to parcels rooted in the humid
boundary layer. Overnight lows should reach mainly the 60's to
lower 70's around daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A broad upper level will over the Upper Great Lakes and southern
Ontario and Quebec early next week. There will be a broad west-
northwest flow aloft over the Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio
Valley on Monday. A cold front will sag southward into northern Ohio
and NWPA Monday afternoon with the chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. It appears that increasing shear may coincide with
sufficient destabilization along the cold front to support a marginal
risk for organized severe thunderstorm development Monday afternoon
into the evening. The main severe weather hazard will be damaging
wind gusts. High temperatures will top out in the mid 80s to
lower 90s before Monday afternoon before the cold front arrives.
The cold front will slow down and stall out over central Ohio Monday
night. An area of low pressure will track eastward along the stalled
front Tuesday into Tuesday night. Rain chances will increase again
on Tuesday into the evening hours. High temperatures will be cooler
on Tuesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The weather pattern looks fairly quiet for the middle and end of
next week. An area of high pressure will move over the region during
the middle part of the week. The low level flow will generally be
northerly which will favor slightly cooler weather. High
temperatures will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s Wednesday
through Friday along with mostly dry weather too.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Primarily VFR expected through 18Z/Sun. A surface trough axis
extends from near KBUF to near KCMH at 17:40Z/Sat and continues
moving SE'ward. This trough axis is expected to exit the rest
of our region by ~00Z/Sun. Behind the trough axis, a surface
ridge builds from the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes
through 18Z/Sun. Our regional surface winds trend variable
around 5 knots. However, an ongoing lake breeze of about 5 to 10
knots within several miles of Lake Erie is expected to
dissipate by ~23Z/Sat. In addition, a land breeze is expected to
occur within several miles of Lake Erie between ~06Z and
~13Z/Sun and another lake breeze is forecast over/within several
miles of the lake from ~15Z/Sun through 00Z/Mon. KCLE and KERI
will be impacted by these lake and land breezes.
Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms along/ahead of the
surface trough axis are expected to exit our region generally to
the south and east through ~00Z/Sun. Conditions are expected to
vary between MVFR and LIFR in the showers/storms. Fair weather
is expected behind the showers/storms. Note: Areas of mist/fog
with MVFR or worse visibility are expected between ~06Z and
~13Z/Sun. This includes KYNG and KCAK.
Outlook....Non-VFR possible with isolated to perhaps scattered
showers and thunderstorms on Monday through Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Weak high pressure will move build in over the lake tonight through
Sunday night. Winds will be northerly 10 knots of less and waves
around a 1 tonight through Sunday. A cold front will approach from
the north Monday afternoon and evening. A low develops along this
front and moves east across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday before it
departs to the east. On Monday, southerly flow will return of 5 to
10 knots before the cold front slides through. Northeast flow will
follow behind the front late Monday int Monday night. Waves will be
1 to 2 feet. The East to Northeast wind flow will increase 10 t0 20
knots Tuesday into Wednesday which may cause waves to increase 2 to 4
feet and the potential for small craft advisory. High pressure and
light northerly winds will be around by Thursday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Griffin
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 6:44 PM EDT---------------
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