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012 FXUS64 KMOB 012105AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL405 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Friday)Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024Only small, subtle changes to the weather pattern in the near term period. Hot and muggy conditions will continue as the area remains of the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered across the southern plains. But, a shortwave trough will be digging into that ridging over the southeast CONUS on Friday, bringing a slight relief to the heat over our interior AL zones. At the sfc, ridging over our area tonight will weaken and get pushed a little to the south and out over the Gulf on Friday. PWAT's remain around 2 inches along coastal sections of the forecast area through Friday, but drop "down" to around 1.80 inches over the interior during the day on Friday. With this, only isolated to scattered convection is expected again on Friday, primarily over the southern half of the forecast area where moisture values will be slightly higher. A few lingering showers and storms early this evening, but generally rain-free overnight tonight. Lows tonight are expected to be in the mid 70s across most of the interior, upper 70s to lower 80s closer to and along the coast. Highs on Friday will again be in the mid to upper 90s across most of the area, but lower 90s along the immediate coast. Due to the slightly drier air and lower dewpoints moving into the area from the north on Friday, heat indices should be just below Heat Advisory criteria, mainly in the 100-105 degree range). Over our MS counties and southern interior AL counties, as well as all of our coastal counties, afternoon heat indices will again likely climb into the 108-112 degree range on Friday, and we have issued yet another Heat Advisory for those locations from 10 AM to 7 PM. DS/12&&.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024The forecast this weekend is pretty typical for early August - HOT temperatures with afternoon thunderstorms. We have no tropicalconcerns locally through the weekend, so rest easy. The local area generally remains sandwiched between a ridge to both our westand east with a trough to our north - essentially leaving the northern Gulf Coast in a weakness between all these features. Downin the lower levels, the local area remains stuck between to surface ridges as a subtle boundary (weakening front) attempts to dive south. There remains uncertainty surrounding just how far theboundary will get before it begins to stall. Some of the recent guidance indicates that the boundary may stall or wash out before it even makes it to the coastline. Rain chances will be highest along the sea breeze and stalling boundary, generally east of I-65, each afternoon over the weekend. Further west, there will likely be just enough of an influence from the ridging that rain chances will be more typical for this time of year. Despite the boundary sliding into the region, temperatures will still be toasty over the weekend with highs topping out in the mid to upper90s.That said, we know that all eyes are on the topics right now. Here are our key messages: 1. It is too soon to say if this system will have any impacts for the local area. Impacts are NOT expected locally this weekend.2. It is still a rather low-confidence forecast given that the system has not fully developed yet. We don't have a good feel for which scenario is most likely yet, but we are leaning toward the first scenario (listed below).3. What you can do now - monitor the forecasts over the coming days, review your family's hurricane plans, and update/refresh your emergency supply kit.Here are the potential scenarios that we are messaging:Scenario #1: This system develops in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and lifts over the Florida peninsula or Big Bend region late in the weekend or early next week. This would potentially increase our rip current risk (if enough swell is generated), but impacts would be minimal here locally. The rest of the week would feature typical summertime conditions - hot with more afternoon thunderstorms.Scenario #2: The system is slower to develop which allows it to move further west into the Gulf of Mexico. In this scenario, weak steering currents would result in the system moving moving very slowly or stalling. This scenario means the system could eventually be more impactful for parts of the area next week (all tropical-related impacts would be on the table with this scenario). Such a scenario could mean impacts (if they were to occur) wouldn't happen here locally until later in the week. Note that there is A LOT of uncertainty with this particular scenario. We're barreling toward the peak of hurricane season, so you should ensure you are prepared for tropical activity...regardless of what happens in the coming days. Be proactive this hurricane season.07/mb&&.MARINE...Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024A light onshore flow this afternoon will become light offshore late tonight and early Friday before becoming more predominately southwesterly to southerly over the weekend. By early next week winds will likely increase somewhat and become more northeasterly,gradually shifting to more northwesterly through midweek. Seas will build as well next week, and likely become hazardous to smallcraft the early to middle part of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the marine area, especially during the late night and early morning hours through the weekend and into early next week. The only hazards will be increased windsand seas near the scattered showers and storms. DS/12 &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 77 97 78 96 75 95 76 94 / 10 30 20 50 40 60 30 60 Pensacola 80 96 80 94 77 92 77 91 / 10 30 20 50 40 60 40 60 Destin 81 92 81 91 79 91 78 90 / 10 30 20 50 40 50 50 60 Evergreen 75 98 75 95 73 94 74 92 / 30 20 20 60 30 60 20 50 Waynesboro 75 99 75 97 73 97 74 96 / 10 10 20 40 20 40 10 40 Camden 76 97 75 94 73 94 74 92 / 10 20 20 50 30 40 10 40 Crestview 76 97 76 95 73 94 74 91 / 10 50 20 70 30 70 40 70 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ052-059-060- 261>266.FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for FLZ201>206.MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
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Topic: [Alert]MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 1, 4:05 PM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (Read 524 times)
