ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 9:39 PM EDT623
FXUS61 KILN 120139
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
939 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the central Great Lakes and
middle Ohio Valley tonight. The high will then push east across
the region Sunday into Sunday night. Clouds will increase on
Monday. Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase Monday
night into Tuesday ahead of the next low pressure system.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A weak cold front has cleared the ILN FA, leaving in its wake
just a few Cu this evening, which should continue to slowly
dissipate before midnight. This being said, it is possible a few
Cu may linger about from time to time overnight, but most spots
should be mainly clear through the near term period.
Winds/gustiness have subsided, going light (generally 5kts or
less) out of the WNW. A few sheltered locales may go calm after
midnight, leading to the potential for some patchy valley fog
in area river valleys. Otherwise, good radiational cooling
conditions will allow for temps to dip into the mid 40s, with
some lower 40s possible in sheltered/rural locales of
central/south-central OH and NE KY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The surface ridge will move east across the region on Sunday.
Mostly sunny skies are expected. A modifying and warming airmass
will move in from the west during the day. This will allow
temperatures to rise into the 70s for highs.
For Sunday night, as the surface ridge moves east, a mid level
ridge axis will move east into the middle Ohio Valley. Clouds
will increase from the west overnight. Lows will be warmer,
mainly in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Monday morning, ridging over the southeastern CONUS will be
sliding off to the east, as an upstream trough (possibly with a
closed low) moves into the middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday
morning. Deep-layer southerly flow ahead of this system will
bring an increase in moisture, with showers beginning to move
into the area by Monday afternoon, and a greater chance of
widespread precipitation by Monday evening. As the upper trough
slowly moves eastward across the Ohio Valley, there will be
occasional chances for showers and storms through Wednesday,
though both the upper low (and eventually open wave) and surface
low will be weakening with time. A southward-moving cold front
will follow into the region behind the surface low on Wednesday,
providing drier and cooler air and ending the chances for
precipitation by Wednesday night. Confidence in this part of the
forecast is medium, with good confidence in the overall
pattern, but still details to work out, particularly in timing
the individual waves of forcing rotating around the trough. Some
of the mesoscale details will help determine if there will be
any severe or flood threats with this system, but there are no
obvious signs of any major issues at this point. Some lower-end
flood risk could develop whenever forcing and moisture transport
maximize, perhaps on Tuesday.
Ridging and surface high pressure will bring drier conditions
on Thursday. Confidence is low in the pattern for Friday and
Saturday, as there remains model disagreement in how quickly
southerly flow and upstream troughing will return to the area.
For now, will keep low chances for precipitation in on both
days.
Temperatures on Monday, ahead of the incoming system, will
reach the mid 70s to around 80. Somewhat cooler conditions are
expected for the next few days, before a warming trend begins
again by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FEW/SCT diurnally-driven VFR Cu will linger about through the
first several hours of the TAF period, especially at KCMH/KLCK
where the clouds are expected to linger the longest before
trending clear area-wide by/after 03z.
For the overnight, sfc high pressure will build east into the
central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley, allowing for
gustiness to subside to 5kts or less. In fact, in sheltered
locales, winds may go light/VRB/calm, including at KLUK where
some river valley BR may lead to MVFR, or even brief IFR, VSBYs
in the several hour period leading up to and around daybreak.
After daybreak Sunday, winds will go more out of the WNW through
the day (remaining 6-8kts or less), trending more westerly by
the end of the period. A few cirrus will overspread the region
during the day, with a few late-day VFR Cu possible near/W of
the I-75 corridor.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions, along with thunderstorms,
possible Monday night through Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 9:39 PM EDT---------------
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