ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 30, 8:07 PM EDT444
FXUS61 KILN 310007
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
807 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and humid conditions will lead to occasional
chances for thunderstorms through the end of the week. A drier
airmass will settle into the Ohio Valley early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A weak embedded mid level short wave moving through the Great
Lakes has led to some spotty shower activity across central
Ohio this afternoon. This activity should taper off through
late afternoon as we lose some of the instability and the short
wave continues east. Meanwhile, based on radar trends, the MCS
currently moving across southern Indiana and western Kentucky
should remain just off to our southwest this afternoon. A
secondary MCS currently moving into western Illinois should
also track southeast along the instability gradient and
generally remain off to our southwest this evening. Some
uncertainty then arises as we head through late tonight as some
of the models are hinting at some scattered shower and
thunderstorm development in the wake of this secondary MCS. Some
of this activity may possibly affect mainly southwest portions
of our forecast area. Will therefore include some chance pops
across our southwest late tonight. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
There is quite a bit of uncertainty with the forecast for
Wednesday into Wednesday night. With the potential for some
shower/thunderstorm activity late tonight, will go ahead and
linger some lower chance pops into Wednesday morning. Depending
on how this all plays out, this could influence how well we warm
up and are able to destabilize through the day on Wednesday.
Assuming we can climb into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees,
dewpoints should slowly nudge up from the southwest through the
day. This could lead to an instability gradient setting up
northwest to southeast across our area through the afternoon.
Several of the hi res cams are indicating a thunderstorm
complex/MCS tracking southeast along this gradient during the
day on Wednesday, but there is a fair amount of disagreement in
the exact timing and placement of this. As a result, will limit
pops on Wednesday to just higher end chance at this point. With
deep layer shear gradually increasing through the day, a few
strong to severe storms would be possible with damaging wind
the main threat. PWs will also be in excess of two inches so
locally heavy rainfall can be expected. Heat indices may
approach 100 degrees or so through the afternoon, especially
across our southwest. However, with a lot of uncertainty with
thunderstorm activity through the day, will just continue to
mention the heat threat in the HWO.
Will linger some chance pops into Wednesday night but this will
again be dependent on how things evolve through the day on
Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Hot and humid conditions continue into the end of the week with
Thursday possibly featuring the most intense heat as long as morning
convection holds off. Forecast highs are currently expected to reach
into the middle 90s along the Ohio River to near 90 north of I-70.
The combination of high temperatures with excessive dew points
reaching into the middle 70s results in very high heat indices, wet
bulb globe temperatures, and heat risk for Thursday afternoon. In
addition to heat, Thursday may also feature a risk for strong to
severe thunderstorms since high instability is expected to form
ahead of an approaching upper level shortwave which may help storm
formation. Strong to severe straight line winds are the main threat
with high DCAPE in place. Locally torrential rain is also possible.
Convection could linger into Thursday night ahead of the shortwave
depending on what happens on Thursday afternoon.
Convection is possible once again on Friday and Saturday as the
upper level shortwave will still be working through the area. Heat
and humidity may be less extreme since cloud cover and rainfall
could keep temperatures down compared to Thursday. A severe threat
or isolated flooding threat might exist on Friday or Saturday, but
details surrounding convection are too far out at this time to know
any specifics.
Rain chances subside the start of next week in the wake of the upper
level shortwave when ridging builds back into the area. Summer-like
conditions persist.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions will start out the TAF period. There is some
uncertainty with convective timing and coverage this TAF
period. There is some potential that later in the overnight
hours there will be some showers and potentially thunderstorm
activity closer to KCVG, KLUK, and KILN. At this point only
have a VCSH mention. Northeast of this area there will be the
potential for some patchy fog and therefore have a MVFR vsby in
at KLCK overnight.
Going into the day on Wednesday as temperatures rise, there is a
better chance for thunderstorm activity. There are some
differences in model solutions whether this will be during the
afternoon or more towards the evening hours. Have VCTS mention
in during the afternoon and into the early evening hours,
however will hold off on TSRA mention until confidence in
timing and coverage increase.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night through
Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 30, 8:07 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
