ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 2:10 PM EDT075
FXUS61 KILN 261810
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
210 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide mostly clear and dry conditions through
Saturday night. An unsettled weather pattern develops on Sunday
and remains in place for much of next week as warmer and more
humid air settles into the region. Several rounds of showers and
storms are likely in the Ohio Valley from Sunday night through
midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Below normal temperatures are expected today with CAA. This will
lead to highs in the low to middle 80s. The CAA will also lead
to cu development today. High clouds continue to stream across
especially southern portions of the region near and south of the
Ohio River. Some haze from wildfires in the northwest United
States and western Canada will also be present today. This is
not expected to be nearly as bad as last year. High pressure
will allow for dry conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The tranquil conditions from the near term period will continue
right through the short term period as sfc high pressure drifts
to the E into the interior NE CONUS. LL return flow won't really
become fully established locally until Saturday night, so the
unusually dry airmass will remain parked across the area until
such point that the light southerly flow begins to advect it
away from the OH Vly Sunday morning.
Temps tonight will dip into the upper 50s, with some mid 50s
likely in rural/sheltered areas. With dry LL air still in place,
the temp rebound will be swift and substantial into Saturday
afternoon as temps nudge into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees
as the airmass begins to subtly moderate. Diurnal swings will be
on the order of about 30 degrees Saturday -- something that's
not too common for this time of the year.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
To start the period, a mid-level ridge axis remains over the Ohio
Valley with a trough exiting the middle Mississippi River region
eroding the western edge. This trough advects deeper moisture from
the southwest, providing an increase in cloud cover overnight.
Sunday morning, there will be sharp gradient between dry air (PWATs
less than 1") over central Ohio with abundant moisture (PWATs of 1.5-
2") across the tri-state. The deeper moisture supports better
chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening
across the tri-state area with rain likely delayed across central
Ohio to the overnight hours. Locally excessive rainfall can't be
ruled out with any deeper thunderstorm activity Sunday evening, but
it still remains quite uncertain how widespread the thunderstorm
activity will be.
On Monday, the first trough will shift northeastward as it becomes
absorbed by the broader trough digging into the Great Lakes.
Embedded within this broad trough, a shortwave will pass through the
lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, supporting additional showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Deep moisture remains present on Monday,
suggesting locally excessive rainfall is possible, however, location
details and the overall robustness of the thunderstorm activity
remain quite uncertain at this time.
A weak low pressure moves through the Great Lakes on Tuesday,
keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. A
weak cold front boundary stalls along the Ohio River Tuesday night
and remains through into Wednesday. The boundary transitions into a
warm front on Wednesday across Indiana into western Ohio, suggesting
the active pattern likely continues into Wednesday and Thursday.
Confidence for severe weather on any particular day is still quite
low. Sunday and Monday present more favorable wet microbursts type
scenarios, while Tuesday through Thursday present opportunities for
more organized convection given the stronger northwesterly mean
flow.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cu and high clouds will be present this afternoon giving way to
mostly clear skies tonight. There will be the potential for some
river valley fog at KLUK overnight. Some additional cu will be
possible for Saturday. Winds will be around 10 knots or less
through the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 2:10 PM EDT---------------
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